So far Quade appears to be sticking to his word for a platoon. Barney got the Opening Day start (2-4, 1 R), though it was Baker who started today in Game No. 2.

Baker has been around long enough to know exactly what he is. In 970 AB he has hit .270 with 30 HR, 130 RBI, 147 R and 8 SB. He’s a career utility player who, with regular playing time, will likely be exposed. He has a career strikeout rate of 26.2 percent. That alone tells you that the average is questionable, at best.

There could be something there, but right now it is far from enough to intrigue fantasy owners in the least. He’s a big risk, and one I wouldn’t take.

Barney made his Major League debut in 2010, hitting .241 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12 R and 0 SB in 79 AB. That seems intriguing, doesn’t it?

The 2007 fourth round draft pick also showed little speed (33 SB) and little power (10 HR) over his 1,546 AB minor league career. In the Pacific Coast League he hit just two home runs in 691 AB. Those numbers just further throw up a bit of a red flag.

Generally we like to have a player who brings something to the table in the way of counting stats. You want to see someone who can contribute with a few home runs or a few stolen bases. Heck, we’d take someone who was a lock to score some runs, but it is hard to imagine the Cubs batting him very high up in the lineup, especially in the early going.

However, those in deeper formats that need a middle infielder can pay a little bit of attention (albeit a small amount). Barney showed the potential to hit for a good average throughout his minor league career, hitting .286 (based on a BABIP of .323). He showed a good control of the strike zone, posting a strikeout rate of just 12.74 percent. Between 2009 and 2010 he spent 691 AB at Triple-A, with a strikeout rate of just 12.16 percent.

Is the potential to post a decent average (though unspectacular) enough to make fantasy owners take notice? No, not really. If you are in an NL-only league, then obviously he’s worth considering, but that may be about it. If you are so desperate for a middle infielder at this point, I’d much rather look at someone like the Mets’ Brad Emaus, who at least brings some power potential, as opposed to Barney.

What about you? What are your thoughts on Barney? Is there any way you see him as being a productive option in 2011?

Make sure to check out our other Rookie Watch columns:

Michael Pineda

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Can he be one of the elite closers in the game in 2011?  Absolutely, but there is also the chance that he completely falls flat.  Which will it be?  Let’s start by taking a look at his 2010 performance:

2 Wins
38 Saves
77.2 Innings
2.55 ERA
1.18 WHIP
138 Strikeouts (15.99 K/9)
52 Walks (6.03 BB/9)
.293 BABIP 

The strikeouts are exceptional, but can we really expect him to be able to replicate it?  Yes, he should continue to be an elite option among relievers, but look at his K/9 the prior three years as a full-time reliever:

2007—12.46 (96 K over 69.1 innings)

2008—11.75 (114 K over 87.1 innings)

2009—11.31 (93 K over 74.0 innings)

They are all impressive numbers, but they aren’t quite the 138 strikeouts that he posted in ’10.  If he posts 20-30 fewer strikeouts, his value will take a hit. 

Among relief pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2010, there were 26 pitchers who posted a K/9 of 10.0 or better.  Included in that group were closers like John Axford, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson, among others.

If he can’t maintain the elite strikeout rate, which I would suspect that he can’t, the other numbers are going to play a significant role in how valuable he is compared to other options.

Obviously, the most glaring number is his walk rate, something that could ultimately cost him his job. 

If he strikes out fewer batters, he is likely going to allow more hits (due to there being more balls put in play).  When that happens, the sheer number of walks he posts could easily come back to haunt him.  You cannot continually walk the ballpark and just expect to strikeout the next three guys and get out of the jam.  Sooner or later it is going to bite you.

Keep in mind in 2009, with a BABIP of .252, he posted a WHIP of 1.46.  Yes, his ERA was still a usable 3.41, but that easily could go the other way.

You also have to consider his fly ball rate of 48.1 percent, which was actually the best mark of his career.  Yet, he posted a HR/FB of 1.6 percent and a HR/9 of 0.12. 

Are those numbers that we can really anticipate him repeating (I know his HR/9 in ’09 was 0.24, but he was at 1.03 in ’08)?  Sooner or later some of those fly balls are going to find their way over the fence.  If that happens, along with all the walks he allows, would it be a surprise to see him struggle?

I’m not suggesting avoiding Marmol in the least.  With his strikeout rate he is going to be a viable closer in all formats. 

However, do not let the stellar strikeout rate distract you from the risk that surrounds him.  If the walks continue he easily could struggle and ultimately find himself out of the closers role, at least for a little while.  Don’t look past Jonathan Broxton in ’10 for proof.

The walks have to be a concern, and they do help to push him down my rankings (he was tenth on my most recent rankings, which you can view by clicking here).  Proceed with caution, because there is a ton of risk.

What are your thoughts on Marmol?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  What are the chances that he loses his job at some point?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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He followed that up with years of 26 and 27 HR (though he had over 100 RBI in each of those seasons).  He was considered one of the better options at third base, and rightfully so.

The past two years, however, have dramatically changed our opinion of him.  He’s missed time in both 2009 and 2010 thanks to a dislocated shoulder and bruised thumb.

If that were the only problem, then maybe he wouldn’t have fallen so far.  However, his 2010 campaign was not very impressive overall:

465 At Bats
.241 Batting Average (112 Hits)
25 Home Runs
83 RBI
61 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.294 On Base Percentage
.452 Slugging Percentage
.245 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously the average was bad, but there are two clear-cut reasons for it.  First of all, his BABIP, which has to jump out at you.  That’s a tremendously unlucky number on the surface, though there is a little bit more behind it.

Since 2002, Ramirez has posted a fly ball rate of 45.7%.  In 2010 his mark was at 56.8%.  If that wasn’t enough, he had just one previous season higher than 46.7% (48.3% in ’08). 

There is a lot less “luck” involved in fly balls, so while the BABIP may seem unlucky on the surface, given the fly ball rate, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Then again, you have to think that his fly ball rate is going to decline back towards his career rate.  He has too long of a history of being in the mid-40s to think that last year’s number is believable.

It is possible that he was trying to hit more home runs in order to prove that his shoulder injury was not a concern.  Maybe there is another excuse. 

Whatever the answer, I would look for him to correct it prior to the 2011 season.

The other concern with his average was his strikeout rate.  He has a career strikeout rate of 15.5%, though he posted a 19.4% mark in 2010.  Again, given his career history, you have to expect him to correct the problem prior to 2011.

He’s a .282 career hitter, though he had been above that mark every season since 2004:

• 2004 – .318
• 2005 – .302
• 2006 – .291
• 2007 – .310
• 2008 – .289
• 2009 – .317

Are we supposed to believe that he simply forgot how to hit?  He’s more than a year removed from the shoulder problem, so it is safe to think that it is not going to be a lingering issue. 

You wouldn’t expect him to get back to his mid-to-high 30 HR days, but once again coming in between 25-30, even with an expected drop in fly ball rate, is fair.

Couple the power and the expected average rebound with hitting in the middle of the Cubs order and there is a lot to like.  We all know what type of potential he has, and at 32 years old, it is fair to assume that he hasn’t simply lost his skill. 

Third base is an extremely weak position, and getting him around Round 9 or 10 is certainly worth the gamble if you miss out on the top options.  Just look at the other options that are going after him (on average according to Mock Draft Central):

• Casey McGehee
• Ian Stewart
• Mark Reynolds
• Pablo Sandoval

Outside of Sandoval (maybe), is there anyone that you would trust more? 

What are your thoughts of Ramirez?  Is he a player you wouldn’t mind owning as your 3B?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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It’s a mistake you do not want to make.

A perfect example of this phenomenon as we head into 2011 is Alfonso Soriano.  According to Mock Draft Central, he has an ADP of 100.81 and is the 25th outfielder coming off the board.  In comparison, I have him ranked outside the top 60 in the recent release of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (click here if you are interested in purchasing the guide, which features the top 90 prospects for 2011, over 550 player projections and much more).

The name is certainly causing many owners to overvalue him.

Let’s take a look at why I feel that way.

First, his 2010 statistics:

496 At Bats
.258 Batting Average (128 Hits)
24 Home Runs
79 RBI
67 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.322 On Base Percentage
.496 Slugging Percentage
.295 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Once upon a time, he was a threat to put up a 40/40 season, but those days are long behind him.  He has 14 stolen bases, total, over the past two years and has not had more than 20 since he played his only season in Washington (2006).  To think he could suddenly rediscover that ability, at age 35, would be a huge mistake.  It’s something that is no longer is in his skill set, so we can simply disregard it.

He only reached 100 RBI once in his career.  In fact, his 79 in 2010 is the most he has had in his four seasons as a member of the Cubs.  Granted, that is slightly skewed due to spending time hitting leadoff, but that wasn’t the case in 2010.

After hitting primarily first for his first three seasons in Chicago, he spent the bulk of his time hitting sixth (381 AB) in 2010.  That’s likely where he will be once again in 2011, meaning we can expect him to potentially reach around 80 RBI, but that’s about it.

That also means his opportunity to score runs is going to be extremely limited.  Considering his OBP and his spot in the lineup, do we really think he can score more than 70 runs?  In 2010, there were 33 outfield eligible players to score at least 80 runs.  There were 49 who scored at least 70 runs.  This fact alone puts Soriano as borderline usable in deeper formats.

Just to make matters worse is his power—something that used to help separate him from the rest of the pack but is now average at best.  Over the past three seasons, he has averaged around 24 HR a season, really a number that is nothing special for an outfielder.

Is it a decent number?  Yes, it is.  He was actually in the top 20 among outfielders in home runs in 2010, but there were 33 who hit at least 20.  Now, throw in the fact there is a risk of regression at play.

In 2010 Soriano set a career high in his fly ball rate, at 54.3 percent.  Since 2002, his fly ball rate is 47.4 percent.  Considering his fall in HR/FB in recent years (11.5 percent and 11.8 percent over the past two seasons compared to a 14.9 percent career mark), there is a very good chance he doesn’t replicate the 24 he slugged in 2010.  In fact, would it surprise anyone if he fell short of 20?

Throw in an average that has been less than stellar (.277 for his career but under .260 the past two seasons) and exactly what is it that we are buying into?

Those people who are drafting Alfonso Soriano are doing so based on name value and nothing more.  Do not get caught up in it and waste a pick as early as you seemingly need to in order to get him.  He’s a borderline usable option, even in five-outfielder formats and much better suited to a reserve role.

What are your thoughts of Soriano?  Is he a player you would want to own?  Where would you be willing to select him on draft day?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

• 2006 - 7.71 ERA over 21.0 innings
• 2007 - 5.88 ERA over 56.2 innings
• 2008 - 4.29 ERA over 115.1 innings

Since the trade, however, Archer has put things together.  In 2009 he posted a 2.81 ERA in 109.0 innings at Single-A, but that was just a prelude of things to come.  In 2010, splitting time between High Single-A and Double-A, he posted the following line: 15 Wins, 142.1 Innings, 2.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 149 Strikeouts (9.4 K/9), 63 Walks (4.1 BB/9), .276 BABIP.

The BABIP is on the lucky side, but it is not so overly lucky that it’s a huge red flag.  However, he was even luckier during his 70.0 innings at Double-A, with a .261 BABIP, then he was during his 72.1 innings at High Single-A.  Against tougher competition, it’s hard to see him continuing the improved mark, meaning a regression is likely coming.

His strikeout rate also took a small step backwards: High Single-A: 8.6 K/9, Double-A: 10.2 K/9

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see his strikeouts regress as he moves up the ranks, so there’s nothing overly concerning here.

The walk rate, however, has always been problematic.  It appeared to be getting better at High Single-A, with a 3.2 BB/9, but rose to 5.0 after being promoted to Double-A.  Over his minor league career he has a walk rate of 5.2, so it’s certainly a worry that isn’t going to go away.

In the Major Leagues, it’s tough to succeed with a walk rate anywhere close to that.  The problem is, against more disciplined hitters, the number has the potential to regress even more.  When you are that bad against lower level batters (his only time above Single-A came in 2010), you just really don’t know what you are going to get.

The last number worth noting are the home runs.  Basically, he doesn’t allow any.  In 2009 he went 109.0 innings without allowing a home run.  In 2010, he allowed just six.

Can that continue?  It’s unlikely, but right now you have to like his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark.

Named the Chicago Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2010, the 22-year-old right-hander has the potential to rise to the Major Leagues in 2011, but there certainly are concerns.  Of course, the biggest one is the control.  If he can’t throw strikes, he’s not going to succeed.  That’s just the bottom line.

We’ll keep a close eye on him throughout 2011, but at this point I would say he’s only worth considering in the deepest of formats.  While he’s succeeded the past two years, I’m just not sure he can translate it to the Major Leagues.

What are your thoughts?  Do you think Archer could be a viable fantasy starting pitcher?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Lawrie, Brett
• Pineda, Michael

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Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

The 20-year-old (he turns 20 on March 24) split 2009 between Single & Double-A, posting the following line:

469 At-Bats
.299 Batting Average (140 Hits)
3 Home Runs
49 RBI
56 Runs
28 Stolen Bases
.341 On Base Percentage
.392 Slugging Percentage
.332 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know

Baseball America ranked him as the Cubs No. 1 prospect for 2010, as well as 16th overall.

In regards to his ability at the plate, Baseball America said, “He has no trouble hitting breaking pitches, usually taking the first one from a pitcher he hasn’t seen before, sizing it up and attacking the next. Though he had just 32 extra-base hits in 2009, Castro has the power potential to double that total once he matures physically.”

Castro is still developing on the base paths, despite his stolen base total in 09. At Double-A he was just 22-for-33. He needs to be successful on a higher percentage of his attempts to fully maximize his potential.

He was fantastic in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .376 over 101 AB. He still showed little power, with just one home run (as well as five doubles and one triple). He was also 9-for-12 in stolen bases, showing some improvement there (he was also a perfect 6-for-6 at Double-A).

Castro does a fantastic job of making contact, striking out just 12.9 percent of the time in his minor league career. Unfortunately, he doesn’t walk much, at 6.0 percent. As he matures, he’ll learn how to take pitches instead of simply putting them in play.

Final Thoughts

The Cubs have said Castro will start the season at Triple-A, so fantasy owners outside of keeper leagues should not get too excited quite yet. Even if he is recalled, there’s no real guarantee that he’s going to be a usable option this season. We know he has not yet developed his power stroke and while the speed is there, it’s still a question mark.

If he is not hitting atop the lineup, how much would the Cubs even let him run?

He’s an elite prospect, and in a year or two he’s likely to be an extremely usable option in all formats. For now, he’s best left for keeper league owners until further notice.

What are your thoughts? Is Castro a player you think will have value in 2010? How good could he be?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For more looks at prospects, you can check out the following articles:

• J.P. Arencibia
• Jake Arrieta
• Phillippe Aumont
• Josh Bell
• Jason Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson
• Desmond Jennings
• Martin Perez
• Gaby Sanchez
• Carlos Santana
• Michael Saunders
• Brett Wallace

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After a 2005 campaign where he hit .335 with 46 HR, 107 RBI, 120 R and 15 SB, fantasy owners saw him simply as one of the best.  Since then, things had gone significantly off course, until 2009 that is.

After breaking his wrist in April 2006, Lee went on to hit just 50 home runs over a three-year span.  Was it the after effects of the injury or was his 2005 power just a mirage? 

He had never hit more than 32 home runs prior to that season and it also came courtesy of a HR/FB rate of 23.7%.

Needless to say, it was easy to write the year off as an anomaly, at least until he posted the following line:

532 At Bats
.306 Batting Average (163 Hits)
35 Home Runs
111 RBI
91 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.393 On Base Percentage
.579 Slugging Percentage
.330 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Before we even get to the power and run production, the speed is something that has to be mentioned. 

He once routinely reached double-digit stolen bases, getting as many as 21 back in 2003, but he attempted just one in 2009.  While I would expect more in 2010 (he at least attempted 10 in 2008), he clearly is not the threat that he once was.

That would have been an advantage over many of the other options at the position, but it is no longer there. 

As for the power, just look at his flyball rates since 2004:

• 2004 - 40.5%
• 2005 - 39.4%
• 2006 - 38.4%
• 2007 - 38.2%
• 2008 - 33.7%
• 2009 - 45.7%

Which of the numbers do not seem to belong?  That’s not to mention the fact that his HR/FB rate jumped back up to 17.9%.  If you want to believe that the wrist injury zapped him of some his power (and his double totals of 43 and 41 the previous two seasons support that), it is still hard to imagine him maintaining the lofty flyball rate. 

That’s a number he had never shown previously in his career and one that almost has to plummet in the coming season.

With a fall in power will likely come a fall in RBI. He spent the majority of his time hitting third last season (348 AB) and the home runs certainly helped because the top of the Cubs lineup is not all that imposing.

Just remember that names like Kosuke Fukudome and Ryan Theriot spent time at the top of the lineup, neither of which bring much fear to opponents.  Granted, Fukudome carried an OBP of .375, but he scored just 79 runs (despite 365 AB in the top three spots of the lineup).

As for the average, it is possible he maintains a .330 BABIP as it was actually his lowest mark since 2004.  Still, if there will be less home runs, that means there will be more balls put into play leading to a lower average.

Additionally, an increase in strikeouts (I’m projecting him to go from 20.5% in 2009 to 21.5% in 2010), will cause his average to drop a little bit.

With all that said, let’s now take a look at my preliminary projection for 2010:

.285 (157-550), 25 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, .324 BABIP, .369 OBP, .500 SLG

As you can tell, I’m expecting him to fall far short from the lofty numbers he produced in 2009.  While it’s easy to point to his previous injury and having finally recovered from it, I do not fully believe it. 

Yes, it may have played a role, but the flyball rate just doesn’t make sense.  It almost has to come back down to earth, which will result in a significant fall in the power department.

Throw in the fact that the Cubs lineup is not quite what it used to be, and overall it is tough to imagine him coming close to his previous season. 

While he’s likely to be a good option, he’s much better suited as a corner infielder at this point (he was outside the most recent Top 15 first baseman rankings, which you can view here ). 

What are your thoughts?  Am I too critical of him?  Do you think he could post numbers reasonably close to his 2009 line?

Make sure to check out some more of our 2010 projections, including:

• Elvis Andrus
• Gordon Beckham
• Billy Butler
• Everth Cabrera
• Kevin Correia
• Alcides Escobar
• B.J. Upton
• Joey Votto
• Matt Wieters

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Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

Unfortunately, saying that he fell flat would be an understatement.  His season was a disaster, with inability and injury holding him to a line of:

331 At Bats
.218 Batting Average (72 Hits)
11 Home Runs
47 RBI
27 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.321 On Base Percentage
.381 Slugging Percentage
.251 Batting Average on Balls in Play

From a player who posted a .504 slugging percentage in 2008, it’s easy to see what went wrong, at least in part.  The power just wasn’t there, with his slugging percentage regressing to a significantly low number.

What is interesting is that his flyball rate was static, going from 41.4% in 2008 to 41.3% in 2009.  His HR/FB rate, which did fall, did not completely disappear, going from 14.7% to 10.3%.  While that’s a fall, it’s not a devastating one.  He could still put up solid home run totals, even if he did not return to his ‘08 levels.

It’s also not like his strikeouts or walks were significantly off from his solid 2008 campaign:

Strikeouts: 24.5 percent in 2008 vs. 23.3 percent in 2009
Walks: 11.2 percent in 2008 vs. 13.1 percent in 2009

So, where exactly were his problems?  I find it hard to simply say that the luck was the sole culprit, but that argument does have some merit.  In 2008 he posted a .337 BABIP, which fell all the way to .251 in 2009.  Among players with at least 300 AB, that placed him 15th worst in the league.

It is safe to assume a bounce back there, and while he likely isn’t going to return to the .337 mark, even if he is around .300 his overall numbers will be significantly better.  The underlying statistics were virtually static, meaning better luck will mean significantly better results.

If his BABIP had been .300 last season (assuming no additional extra base hits), his AVG would have gone to .254 and his SLG would have gone to .417.  What if he had matched the .337 mark?  He would’ve been at .281 and .444, respectively.  I think a fair expectation is falling somewhere in the middle, which certainly are numbers for a catcher that fantasy owners would be happy with.

It is easy for some to say that Soto had been poor prior to 2007, when he came out of no where to post 26 HR prior to his recall.  However, there were some significant changes to his approach.  All you have to do is look at his Triple-A flyball rates as proof:

2005 - 29.1 percent
2006 - 30.4 percent
2007 - 39.6 percent

He has maintained that flyball rate, even in his struggles, so it’s hard to point to those early years and use them as a basis for anything.  He’s a changed player, and the numbers prior to that transformation should be disregarded.

We’ll probably touch on him again later in the offseason, where I’ll give an actual projection, but at this point what needs to be noted is that he is a great pick at the catching position.  The power is still there, and getting him at his current ADP (148.10), would be a solid selection thanks to his potential.

He’s a player to target in all formats in my book, especially if he slips down to the 14th or 15th round, but what about you?  Am I simplifying his struggles?  Do you not expect him to fully bounce back in 2010?

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While his name may not be well known, at least not yet, the 6′1″, 195 pound 22 year old reached Triple-A in 2009 and is potentially on the precipice of making an impact.

He seemingly has the arsenal to make his presence felt. He was described by Baseball America as the team’s fourth best prospect.

“Jackson has good feel for four pitches that are average or better. His best offering is a fastball ranging from 90-95 mph. His mid-80s slider and high-70s curveball are distinct pitches that rate as above-average at times. He also has an effective changeup. He has a long arm action, but he’s so athletic that he repeats his high-three-quarters delivery easily. He’s fearless and fields his position well.”

He spent time across three levels in 2009, Single, Double, and Triple-A, though the majority of those innings (82.2) were spent at Double-A.  Overall he posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 127.0 innings.  He posted a K/9 of 8.6 and a BB/9 of 3.1.

The control, however, is a little misleading.  Let’s look at him by the level from 2009:

• Single-A: 0.88 (41.0 innings)
• Double-A: 4.10 (82.2 innings)
• Triple-A: 4.50 (6.0 innings)

While it’s great that walked very few batters while at Single-A, that came against very inexperienced and undisciplined hitters.  His marks against the upper levels are far more telling and very worrisome.

There were 15 pitchers in the Major Leagues who pitched at least 140 innings and had a BB/9 of 4.00 or more.  Of those pitchers, only three had an ERA below 4.00 (Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, and Carlos Zambrano).  That should tell you something about his potential control issues.

Jackson also saw his flyball rate rise and his groundball rate fall as he jumped from Single to Double-A, but those numbers remained reasonable:

• Single-A: 32.0 FB%, 47.6% GB%
• Double-A: 38.5% FB%, 40.6% GB%

Those are numbers you can live with, especially since he continued to limit opponent's HR, with a HR/9 of 0.74 at Double-A.  He also posted a realistic .293 BABIP while there, so it is possible for him to post usable WHIPs, assuming he can avoid handing out free passes.

Unfortunately, that seems like a very big if.

The ninth round draft pick by the Cubs in 2008, it clearly appears that he needs more time at the upper levels before he makes an impact.  We’ve seen the type of patience that Lou Pinella has when it comes to control (remember the Rich Hill debacle), so if he struggles it could do more harm than good.

Still, having had a cup of coffee at Triple-A in 2009 and armed with extremely good stuff, it is possible that he gets a look for the Major League team in 2010.  I wouldn’t make a move on him unless you are in the deepest of dynasty leagues, but I’d certainly keep an eye on him and see what develops.

What are your thoughts on Jackson?  How good can he be?  When will he make his Major League debut?

You can read other recent Prospect Reports including:

• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier

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