CubsManiacs.com » John Woelfel http://www.cubsmaniacs.com Chicago Cubs Fan Site Fri, 03 Feb 2012 21:35:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 en hourly 1 Wait Until… 2012 Cubs Fans http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/wait-until-2012-cubs-fans/ http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/wait-until-2012-cubs-fans/#comments Mon, 23 Aug 2010 14:49:10 +0000 John Woelfel http://bleacherreport.com/articles/441575-wait-until-2012-cubs-fans Jim Hendry has gone on record saying that the Cubs are “three or four” solid moves away from competing in 2011.

I would contend that most teams are within that range, depending on your definition of a “solid” move. If the Pittsburgh Pirates could sign Cliff Lee, Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, and another star in the offseason, they would probably be able to contend in the Central too.

The problem with the Cubs is their current makeup. It’d be one thing if they had open positions where the solution would be to go out and sign a big name to take over.  Currently, that would only apply to the first base position, and perhaps that isn’t as open as we think. Here’s why.

Here’s the Cubs every day position player lineup for 2011:

Catcher: Geovany Soto

Soto has had a bounce-back year after a sophomore slump in 2009. He will be the everyday catcher in 2011, and there really wouldn’t be a way to upgrade at the catcher position. Soto is under the Cubs control until 2014.

I’m still not supportive of Koyie Hill being the backup catcher, but whatever. He’s arbitration eligible after this season and under the team’s control until 2013.

First Base: Unknown

Here’s the easiest position the Cubs could bring a big name free agent in to fill. The biggest names set to hit the market are Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Paul Konerko.  Konerko wouldn’t be a bad option to add to a contending team, but I don’t see him as much of a fit for the Cubs. 

I’ve felt for awhile that Adam Dunn is destined to be a Cub. He’d finally give them a big, left-handed hitter that reaches base a lot. I think Dunn would be a decent fit for the Cubs if they could sign him for a two or three year deal. Anything more than that is a chance of adding yet another big, unloadable contract.

A cheaper option the Cubs could consider is Adam LaRoche. He doesn’t make near as much money as the big names, but will consistently hit 25 home runs and knock in 90 runs or so. He’s also left handed and may be available if the Diamondbacks don’t sign him to an extension.

Complicating matters is that the Cubs have Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome all signed for 2011. Between those three and Colvin, someone isn’t going to be starting. The Cubs have already said they are going to have Colvin give 1B a try. He is an option moving forward as the Cubs have no heir apparent in their system for the position.

With the big first baseman free agent year coming (Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, etc) after next season, the Cubs may be better off plugging Colvin in at 1st for a year until Fukudome’s contract is up and then sign one of the big boys.

Second base: Blake DeWitt

All indications are the Cubs are going to stick with DeWitt at second. He’s definitely a cheaper option and seems solid. He doesn’t look like a star, but will probably at least fill Theriot’s production, minus the stolen bases. The Cubs could possibly upgrade their offense with a Dan Uggla, but spending their money elsewhere would probably be more beneficial.

Shortstop: Starlin Castro

Well, at least there’s one spot we don’t have to worry about for a long, long time.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez

Aramis most certainly will pick up his player option for 2011. There’s no way he would get any more by becoming a free agent in this economy and coming off the worst season of his career. Don’t let his rhetoric of “honoring his contract” fool you- it’s about the money. The Cubs then decline his $16 million team option after next season and can decide how to fill that hole.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Here’s one of the killer contracts that will be around for a few more years. $18 million a year through 2014. He will be 38 years old (at least) by then. There’s really nothing the Cubs can do with him. He’s had an average season- and has improved on defense inasmuch that eating four pieces of double-chocolate fudge pie is an improvement for your weight than eating five pieces.

Let’s face it, the Cubs are stuck with Soriano. I honestly don’t know what would be more beneficial- keeping Soriano and having him play out the rest of his contract or eating the rest of his salary and giving him to an AL team to DH for the next few years.

Center Field: Marlon Byrd

Byrd was a great sign by Hendry. He’s not a superstar, but he’s worth the $5 million a year he’s going to earn through 2012. He’s a great defender, he’s pretty decent at the plate, and he hustles on every single play. He seems like a great teammate and a great guy to have on the team. 

The only concern I have with Byrd is that he seems to have trouble in big pressure spots late in the game. He swings at everything. When he’s patient, he’s a great hitter. When the tying or go-ahead runs are on base late in the game, you might as well pitch to him like you would to Shawon Dunston. Just keep bouncing the balls in and let him strike out.

Regardless, Byrd has been a great addition to Chicago.

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome/Tyler Colvin

Right field is kind of a mess right now with Fukudome still having one year left on his contract and Colvin trying to find regular playing time. Fukudome has been getting quite a few starts lately, which doesn’t make that much sense with the Cubs not playing any meaningful games unless the Cubs are trying to showcase that he could help a contender for the rest of the season.

Even if they can do so, they will most likely have to pick up the majority of his contract through next season to get rid of him. The Cubs might just have to play Colvin at first for 2011 while Fukudome finishes out his contract in right field.

Starting Pitching:

Let’s face it, the starting pitching is really the least of the Cubs concerns. At least it was this season. 2011 could be a little different, but overall- the Cubs have so many other holes that this doesn’t look too bad.

Dempster, Silva, Zambrano, Gorzelanny, Wells-  The Cubs could get through 2011 with that rotation.

Silva will make $11.5 million in 2011 and then has a mutual option for $12 million for 2012 with a $2 million buyout. Would you pay $10 million more for Silva at that time? Me neither. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been pretty impressive this year. But there will be better options and better ways to spend that $10 million in 2012.

Zambrano is an interesting case because he probably has a few more pretty serviceable years left. He was kind of jacked around for awhile this year going back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and his control seems to have taken the hit for it. 

Since getting off to a pretty bad start, he’s lowered his ERA under 5.00- so that’s something. The Cubs could probably trade him for another bad contract or two (like the Luis Castillo/Oliver Perez deal), which would be bad for 2011 but shave a year off of having to pay Zambrano’s contract.

Zambrano will make $17.875 million in 2011 and then $18 million in 2012. He has a vesting option for 2013 for $19.25 million if he finishes 1st or 2nd in Cy Young voting in 2011 or in the top four in 2012. 

In other words, he’s a free agent after 2012.

The Bullpen: Marmol, Marshall and then…  sucks. Awful.

Hopefully Grabow will be healthy next season and he won’t be a complete waste of money. Marmol closing with Marshall and Grabow setting up from the left side might not be too bad. But the rest of the bullpen has to be looked at. 

The problem is that the majority of relievers you could sign could come in and suck it up. There’s just too much uncertainty in bullpens. Some teams, like the Padres, get lucky and all their relievers have career years at the same time. 

Have fun with that.

So what are four moves that Hendry could make that would turn the Cubs into contenders in 2011?

Trade Alfonso Soriano for a bag of balls and sign Adam Dunn to a one year contract.

Trade Carlos Zambrano for Roy Halladay.

Trade Aramis Ramirez for Evan Longoria.

Trade Kosuke Fukudome for Robinson Cano.

Yeah, those four moves should do it. 

In other words, 2011 is going to be a difficult one. 

The good news, friends, is that 2012 is a new year. 

The Cubs will have some money to spend again. Remember how the Knicks and some other teams decided to suck for a few years in the hope of getting LeBron James or some other big free agents? That is what the Cubs have the opportunity to do in 2012.

They’ll still have Soriano in LF (or on the DL) and Zambrano will be in the last year of his contract, but they will have freed up the money that was tied into Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Silva.

That’s almost $40 million.

Hang in there, Cubs fans. 2011 might not be much fun. But 2012 is coming.

What a glorious day that will be.

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> Jim Hendry has gone on record saying that the Cubs are “three or four” solid moves away from competing in 2011.

I would contend that most teams are within that range, depending on your definition of a “solid” move. If the Pittsburgh Pirates could sign Cliff Lee, Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, and another star in the offseason, they would probably be able to contend in the Central too.

The problem with the Cubs is their current makeup. It’d be one thing if they had open positions where the solution would be to go out and sign a big name to take over.  Currently, that would only apply to the first base position, and perhaps that isn’t as open as we think. Here’s why.

Here’s the Cubs every day position player lineup for 2011:

Catcher: Geovany Soto

Soto has had a bounce-back year after a sophomore slump in 2009. He will be the everyday catcher in 2011, and there really wouldn’t be a way to upgrade at the catcher position. Soto is under the Cubs control until 2014.

I’m still not supportive of Koyie Hill being the backup catcher, but whatever. He’s arbitration eligible after this season and under the team’s control until 2013.

First Base: Unknown

Here’s the easiest position the Cubs could bring a big name free agent in to fill. The biggest names set to hit the market are Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Paul Konerko.  Konerko wouldn’t be a bad option to add to a contending team, but I don’t see him as much of a fit for the Cubs. 

I’ve felt for awhile that Adam Dunn is destined to be a Cub. He’d finally give them a big, left-handed hitter that reaches base a lot. I think Dunn would be a decent fit for the Cubs if they could sign him for a two or three year deal. Anything more than that is a chance of adding yet another big, unloadable contract.

A cheaper option the Cubs could consider is Adam LaRoche. He doesn’t make near as much money as the big names, but will consistently hit 25 home runs and knock in 90 runs or so. He’s also left handed and may be available if the Diamondbacks don’t sign him to an extension.

Complicating matters is that the Cubs have Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome all signed for 2011. Between those three and Colvin, someone isn’t going to be starting. The Cubs have already said they are going to have Colvin give 1B a try. He is an option moving forward as the Cubs have no heir apparent in their system for the position.

With the big first baseman free agent year coming (Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, etc) after next season, the Cubs may be better off plugging Colvin in at 1st for a year until Fukudome’s contract is up and then sign one of the big boys.

Second base: Blake DeWitt

All indications are the Cubs are going to stick with DeWitt at second. He’s definitely a cheaper option and seems solid. He doesn’t look like a star, but will probably at least fill Theriot’s production, minus the stolen bases. The Cubs could possibly upgrade their offense with a Dan Uggla, but spending their money elsewhere would probably be more beneficial.

Shortstop: Starlin Castro

Well, at least there’s one spot we don’t have to worry about for a long, long time.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez

Aramis most certainly will pick up his player option for 2011. There’s no way he would get any more by becoming a free agent in this economy and coming off the worst season of his career. Don’t let his rhetoric of “honoring his contract” fool you- it’s about the money. The Cubs then decline his $16 million team option after next season and can decide how to fill that hole.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Here’s one of the killer contracts that will be around for a few more years. $18 million a year through 2014. He will be 38 years old (at least) by then. There’s really nothing the Cubs can do with him. He’s had an average season- and has improved on defense inasmuch that eating four pieces of double-chocolate fudge pie is an improvement for your weight than eating five pieces.

Let’s face it, the Cubs are stuck with Soriano. I honestly don’t know what would be more beneficial- keeping Soriano and having him play out the rest of his contract or eating the rest of his salary and giving him to an AL team to DH for the next few years.

Center Field: Marlon Byrd

Byrd was a great sign by Hendry. He’s not a superstar, but he’s worth the $5 million a year he’s going to earn through 2012. He’s a great defender, he’s pretty decent at the plate, and he hustles on every single play. He seems like a great teammate and a great guy to have on the team. 

The only concern I have with Byrd is that he seems to have trouble in big pressure spots late in the game. He swings at everything. When he’s patient, he’s a great hitter. When the tying or go-ahead runs are on base late in the game, you might as well pitch to him like you would to Shawon Dunston. Just keep bouncing the balls in and let him strike out.

Regardless, Byrd has been a great addition to Chicago.

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome/Tyler Colvin

Right field is kind of a mess right now with Fukudome still having one year left on his contract and Colvin trying to find regular playing time. Fukudome has been getting quite a few starts lately, which doesn’t make that much sense with the Cubs not playing any meaningful games unless the Cubs are trying to showcase that he could help a contender for the rest of the season.

Even if they can do so, they will most likely have to pick up the majority of his contract through next season to get rid of him. The Cubs might just have to play Colvin at first for 2011 while Fukudome finishes out his contract in right field.

Starting Pitching:

Let’s face it, the starting pitching is really the least of the Cubs concerns. At least it was this season. 2011 could be a little different, but overall- the Cubs have so many other holes that this doesn’t look too bad.

Dempster, Silva, Zambrano, Gorzelanny, Wells-  The Cubs could get through 2011 with that rotation.

Silva will make $11.5 million in 2011 and then has a mutual option for $12 million for 2012 with a $2 million buyout. Would you pay $10 million more for Silva at that time? Me neither. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been pretty impressive this year. But there will be better options and better ways to spend that $10 million in 2012.

Zambrano is an interesting case because he probably has a few more pretty serviceable years left. He was kind of jacked around for awhile this year going back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and his control seems to have taken the hit for it. 

Since getting off to a pretty bad start, he’s lowered his ERA under 5.00- so that’s something. The Cubs could probably trade him for another bad contract or two (like the Luis Castillo/Oliver Perez deal), which would be bad for 2011 but shave a year off of having to pay Zambrano’s contract.

Zambrano will make $17.875 million in 2011 and then $18 million in 2012. He has a vesting option for 2013 for $19.25 million if he finishes 1st or 2nd in Cy Young voting in 2011 or in the top four in 2012. 

In other words, he’s a free agent after 2012.

The Bullpen: Marmol, Marshall and then…  sucks. Awful.

Hopefully Grabow will be healthy next season and he won’t be a complete waste of money. Marmol closing with Marshall and Grabow setting up from the left side might not be too bad. But the rest of the bullpen has to be looked at. 

The problem is that the majority of relievers you could sign could come in and suck it up. There’s just too much uncertainty in bullpens. Some teams, like the Padres, get lucky and all their relievers have career years at the same time. 

Have fun with that.

So what are four moves that Hendry could make that would turn the Cubs into contenders in 2011?

Trade Alfonso Soriano for a bag of balls and sign Adam Dunn to a one year contract.

Trade Carlos Zambrano for Roy Halladay.

Trade Aramis Ramirez for Evan Longoria.

Trade Kosuke Fukudome for Robinson Cano.

Yeah, those four moves should do it. 

In other words, 2011 is going to be a difficult one. 

The good news, friends, is that 2012 is a new year. 

The Cubs will have some money to spend again. Remember how the Knicks and some other teams decided to suck for a few years in the hope of getting LeBron James or some other big free agents? That is what the Cubs have the opportunity to do in 2012.

They’ll still have Soriano in LF (or on the DL) and Zambrano will be in the last year of his contract, but they will have freed up the money that was tied into Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Silva.

That’s almost $40 million.

Hang in there, Cubs fans. 2011 might not be much fun. But 2012 is coming.

What a glorious day that will be.

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/wait-until-2012-cubs-fans/feed/ 0 TheOutfieldIvy.com Staff NL Predictions: John Mark http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/theoutfieldivy-com-staff-nl-predictions-john-mark/ http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/theoutfieldivy-com-staff-nl-predictions-john-mark/#comments Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:56:03 +0000 John Woelfel http://bleacherreport.com/articles/437201-theoutfieldivycom-staff-nl-predictions-john-mark NL East:

The NL East is a two team race.  The Braves currently hold a two game lead over the Phillies, but I don’t expect that to last for long.  I thought the underachieving Phillies would catch the Braves before Chipper Jones got hurt.  Now the Braves are in big trouble. 

 

The Braves have survived on good pitching.  Only the Padres have given up fewer runs in the NL.  Tim Hudson has returned to his pre-Tommy John days, Tommy Hanson has been solid, Jurrjens is healthy again, and Lowe has been steady.  The bullpen has been lights out, led by Billy Wagner.  On the offensive side, Martin Prado should be back soon, but it will probably be too little, too late.

 

The Phillies are just too strong.  The Phillies have a better lineup even with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the DL right now.  Victorino and Rollins are healthy again, and once the lineup includes Howard, Utley, Victorino, Rollins, Werth, and Ibanez again- there will be no stopping them from returning to the top of the NL East.  Oh, and they picked up some guy named Roy Oswalt to add to their rotation that already features Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.  The bullpen can be shaky at times, but Brad Lidge has looked good his last few appearances and Ryan Madsen is healthy again if needed.

 

Prediction:  Phillies win the East by 4 games.

 

NL Central:

The Reds currently lead the Cardinals by one game in the Central.  It’s been a great season for the Reds so far.  I just don’t see them being there at the end of the season.  The Reds lead the NL in runs scored, and yet they are just one game ahead of the Cardinals.  The rotation of Arroyo, Cueto, Leake (who is running out of steam fast), and Volquez (who just returned from his Tommy John surgery) isn’t too impressive.  Aaron Harang may be back soon if his 5.02 ERA excites you.  The Reds do have the easiest schedule in the league ahead of them, so they do have that going for them.

 

Unfortunately for the Reds, the Cardinals starting rotation will probably prove to be just too good.  If the Cardinals can just get some average production from Pujols and Holliday, the Cardinals should be the division winners when the dust settles.  The Cardinals can start Wainwright and Carpenter 2 out of every 5 games over the next month and a half and expect not just to compete, but to win.  Follow that up with Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia (who has an ERA under 3), and you have a real solid rotation.  The Cardinals still need to find a fifth starter (Penny is on the DL and may not return this year and Kyle Lohse hasn’t looked good in his minor league rehab and in his first appearance against the Cubs), but they’re no worse off than the Reds in that department. 


I still have my doubts that Ryan Franklin is good enough to close out tough competition in the playoffs, but he’ll have to do for now.  I look for the Cardinals to pull away.

 

Prediction:  Cardinals win the Central by 3 games.

 

 

NL West:

The Padres have the biggest lead in any division at 3 ½ games over the Giants.  They will probably need it.  Pitching has carried the Padres all year as they have given up the fewest runs in the NL. 

Only four teams have scored less runs however, and the addition of Miguel Tejada at the trade deadline doesn’t exactly bolster their lineup.  Atlanta has given up the second fewest runs in the league, and that is 40 runs more that the Padres.  To put it in perspective, the Diamondbacks have given up 253 more runs than the Padres.  That’s more than 2 runs a game.  Yikes.

 

The Giants pitching is pretty dang good too, even with a struggling Lincecum.  The Giants also haven’t had the most impressive lineup to throw out, but have recently acquired Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen.  The lineup looks a lot better with those guys surrounding Posey, Huff, and Sandoval.  The Giants offense still isn’t much, but it’s better than the Padres lineup. 

 

Both teams have great closers, but the edge has to go to the Padres with their steady stream of great relievers.  The Gregerson/Adams/Bell combination reminds me of the Lidge/Dotel/Wagner days in Houston.  When the Padres get a lead, they are tough to beat. 

 

I think the Padres will hold off the Giants for the division title.

 

Prediction:  Padres win the West by 2 games.  Giants win the Wild Card by 2 games over the Braves/Reds.

 

 

The Playoffs:

 

Padres (Best Record) vs. Cardinals

 

This is an unfortunate draw for the Padres as they finish with the best record but have to play the Cardinals because the Giants win the Wild Card. 

 

The 1-2 punch of Latos/Garland or Latos/LeBlanc will be no match for the Wainwright/Carpenter tandem.  San Diego may win one by gaining a lead early and holding on with their bullpen, but it will be a disappointing finish for the team with the best record in the NL.

 

Cardinals win the series in 4

 

 

Phillies vs. Giants (Wild Card)

 

This could be a great matchup.  Halladay vs. Lincecum.  Oswalt vs. Cain.  Hamels vs. Zito.

 

With the pitching matchups being pretty equal, the Phillies get the edge with a substantially better offense. 

 

Phillies win the series in 4

 

 

League Championship Series:

Cardinal vs. Phillies

 

Another great series, but in the end the Phillies are just too strong.  The inconsistent Cardinal offense will have all they can handle against Halladay and Oswalt- and will most likely have to face Halladay twice. 

 

Phillies win the series in 5

 

 

NL CHAMPIONS:  PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

 

Read more at theoutfieldivy.com 

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> NL East:

The NL East is a two team race.  The Braves currently hold a two game lead over the Phillies, but I don’t expect that to last for long.  I thought the underachieving Phillies would catch the Braves before Chipper Jones got hurt.  Now the Braves are in big trouble. 

 

The Braves have survived on good pitching.  Only the Padres have given up fewer runs in the NL.  Tim Hudson has returned to his pre-Tommy John days, Tommy Hanson has been solid, Jurrjens is healthy again, and Lowe has been steady.  The bullpen has been lights out, led by Billy Wagner.  On the offensive side, Martin Prado should be back soon, but it will probably be too little, too late.

 

The Phillies are just too strong.  The Phillies have a better lineup even with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the DL right now.  Victorino and Rollins are healthy again, and once the lineup includes Howard, Utley, Victorino, Rollins, Werth, and Ibanez again- there will be no stopping them from returning to the top of the NL East.  Oh, and they picked up some guy named Roy Oswalt to add to their rotation that already features Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.  The bullpen can be shaky at times, but Brad Lidge has looked good his last few appearances and Ryan Madsen is healthy again if needed.

 

Prediction:  Phillies win the East by 4 games.

 

NL Central:

The Reds currently lead the Cardinals by one game in the Central.  It’s been a great season for the Reds so far.  I just don’t see them being there at the end of the season.  The Reds lead the NL in runs scored, and yet they are just one game ahead of the Cardinals.  The rotation of Arroyo, Cueto, Leake (who is running out of steam fast), and Volquez (who just returned from his Tommy John surgery) isn’t too impressive.  Aaron Harang may be back soon if his 5.02 ERA excites you.  The Reds do have the easiest schedule in the league ahead of them, so they do have that going for them.

 

Unfortunately for the Reds, the Cardinals starting rotation will probably prove to be just too good.  If the Cardinals can just get some average production from Pujols and Holliday, the Cardinals should be the division winners when the dust settles.  The Cardinals can start Wainwright and Carpenter 2 out of every 5 games over the next month and a half and expect not just to compete, but to win.  Follow that up with Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia (who has an ERA under 3), and you have a real solid rotation.  The Cardinals still need to find a fifth starter (Penny is on the DL and may not return this year and Kyle Lohse hasn’t looked good in his minor league rehab and in his first appearance against the Cubs), but they’re no worse off than the Reds in that department. 


I still have my doubts that Ryan Franklin is good enough to close out tough competition in the playoffs, but he’ll have to do for now.  I look for the Cardinals to pull away.

 

Prediction:  Cardinals win the Central by 3 games.

 

 

NL West:

The Padres have the biggest lead in any division at 3 ½ games over the Giants.  They will probably need it.  Pitching has carried the Padres all year as they have given up the fewest runs in the NL. 

Only four teams have scored less runs however, and the addition of Miguel Tejada at the trade deadline doesn’t exactly bolster their lineup.  Atlanta has given up the second fewest runs in the league, and that is 40 runs more that the Padres.  To put it in perspective, the Diamondbacks have given up 253 more runs than the Padres.  That’s more than 2 runs a game.  Yikes.

 

The Giants pitching is pretty dang good too, even with a struggling Lincecum.  The Giants also haven’t had the most impressive lineup to throw out, but have recently acquired Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen.  The lineup looks a lot better with those guys surrounding Posey, Huff, and Sandoval.  The Giants offense still isn’t much, but it’s better than the Padres lineup. 

 

Both teams have great closers, but the edge has to go to the Padres with their steady stream of great relievers.  The Gregerson/Adams/Bell combination reminds me of the Lidge/Dotel/Wagner days in Houston.  When the Padres get a lead, they are tough to beat. 

 

I think the Padres will hold off the Giants for the division title.

 

Prediction:  Padres win the West by 2 games.  Giants win the Wild Card by 2 games over the Braves/Reds.

 

 

The Playoffs:

 

Padres (Best Record) vs. Cardinals

 

This is an unfortunate draw for the Padres as they finish with the best record but have to play the Cardinals because the Giants win the Wild Card. 

 

The 1-2 punch of Latos/Garland or Latos/LeBlanc will be no match for the Wainwright/Carpenter tandem.  San Diego may win one by gaining a lead early and holding on with their bullpen, but it will be a disappointing finish for the team with the best record in the NL.

 

Cardinals win the series in 4

 

 

Phillies vs. Giants (Wild Card)

 

This could be a great matchup.  Halladay vs. Lincecum.  Oswalt vs. Cain.  Hamels vs. Zito.

 

With the pitching matchups being pretty equal, the Phillies get the edge with a substantially better offense. 

 

Phillies win the series in 4

 

 

League Championship Series:

Cardinal vs. Phillies

 

Another great series, but in the end the Phillies are just too strong.  The inconsistent Cardinal offense will have all they can handle against Halladay and Oswalt- and will most likely have to face Halladay twice. 

 

Phillies win the series in 5

 

 

NL CHAMPIONS:  PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

 

Read more at theoutfieldivy.com 

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/theoutfieldivy-com-staff-nl-predictions-john-mark/feed/ 0 Chicago Cubs Week in Review (July 19-July 25) http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/chicago-cubs-week-in-review-july-19-july-25/ http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/chicago-cubs-week-in-review-july-19-july-25/#comments Mon, 26 Jul 2010 15:49:50 +0000 John Woelfel http://bleacherreport.com/articles/425153-cubs-week-in-review-july-19-july-25 The Cubs finished a pretty disappointing, albeit exciting week last night with an 11-inning, 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, which prevented them from sweeping the series.

The near sweep almost allowed us to forget that the Cubs dropped two of three to the Astros in the previous series to all but end any miniscule hope the Cubs had at getting back in the race.

Wednesday’s 12-inning loss was the killer, as the Cubs stranded seven guys in the ninth, 10th, and 11th innings combined.

Only the Cubs could find a way to get that many guys on base (including two straight innings with a runner on third and less than two outs) and not score a run.

Consider this: the Cubs record since the All-Star break is now 6-4.

That includes a Marmol blown save against the Phillies, the extra inning game against the Astros that the Cubs had every opportunity to win, and the extra inning loss to the Cardinals last night that.

It’s very possible the Cubs could have been 9-1 on the homestand, and now we’re looking at a seven-game defecit moving forward instead of being 10 games out.

Oh well.

The most surprising thing about the game last night was that it took the Cardinals five outs before they scored on Brian Schiltter.

I understand that Marshall and Marmol had already been used and Cashner pitched two innings the night before, but Schiltter?

Is our bullpen that bad?

It shows you how little confidence Lou Pinella has in Bob Howry that he let Schlitter (a rookie with a 15.00 ERA) not only start the 10th inning but then go out for the 11th inning as well.

He gave up four hits over those two innings including the game-winning home run to Felipe Lopez.

He somehow managed to get Albert Pujols out to lead off the 10th and then Yadier Molina hit a rocket to second that turned into an inning-ending double play after Schiltter allowed three straight hits.

That was brutal.

Here are the statistical updates:

 

Hitters

JULY 11/ JULY 18/ JULY 25

Byrd- .317/ .320/ .312

Castro- .270/ .294/ .307

Fontenot-  .292/ .290/ .287

Soto- .284/ .286/ .286

Theriot- .278/ .273/ .281

Soriano- .269/ .272/ .269

Colvin- .263/ .270/ .262

Fukudome-  .252/ .251/ .253

Lee- .233/ .238/ .251

Baker-.233/ .246/ .246

Ramirez- .207/ .213/ .227

Nady-.225/ .223/ .224

Hill- .213/ .213/ .204

 

Pitchers

JULY 11/ JULY 18/ JULY 25

Gorzelanny-  3.16/ 3.12/ 3.22

Dempster-3.61/ 3.57/ 3.71

Silva- 3.45/ 3.45/ 3.86

Lilly-  4.08/ 4.07/ 3.88

Wells- 4.61/ 4.33/ 4.07

Zambrano-  5.66/ EXILE ISLAND

Marshall- 2.03/ 1.91/ 1.74

Cashner- 2.41/ 2.61/ 2.45

Marmol- 2.16/ 2.91/ 2.66

Russell- 3.62/ 4.13/ 4.40

Stevens- 5.71/ 5.71/ 6.11

Atkins- 6.00/ 6.00/ 6.43

Howry- 5.93/ 6.97/ 7.29

Grabow- 7.36/ DL/ DL

Schlitter-Minors/ 15.00/ 10.80

 

Most Important things:

1) Breaking news! Aramis Ramirez no longer has the lowest non-pitcher batting average on the team!

2) Is it just me or does Marlon Byrd remind you of Glenallen Hill? The overly large biceps, the sunglasses, the odd “my arms are too big to bend my elbows” swing, etc.

Byrd seems to get overly excited in big at-bats. That at-bat last night in the bottom of the 10th with the bases loaded, Franklin could have thrown him anything on the first pitch and he would have swung at it.

3) I think Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro might be really good. Castro has been great in the No. 2 hole so far. I’m not sure where he will be hitting down the road in his career yet. He hasn’t really hit for any power yet, but he does seem to get his share of extra base hits. We’ll see if he starts developing some power or if he could fill that leadoff role with his speed for years to come.

Colvin has done a good job in the leadoff role, but that clearly won’t be where he stays in the years to come. He has shown a lot of power this year and he still has plenty of room to bulk up. I could see him as a middle-of-the-order-type guy in a few years and hitting from the left side makes him even more valuable.

The Cubs finally look like they might have developed some good young talent. Let’s hope they don’t pull a Jerome Walton.

4) The trade deadline is approaching and I would bet that Ted Lilly is wearing a new uniform by Wednesday. My guess is he’ll be a Detroit Tiger. Other Cubs that may be playing their last games with the club: Xavier Nady, Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukudome, and Derrek Lee.

 

5) Lou Pinella announced this week that he will be retiring at the end of this season. You can read more about his possible replacements .

6) The Cubs lead all of baseball in quality starts and yet are nine games under .500. Let that sink in for a while.

The Cubs start a three-game series against the Astros tonight and will miss both Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez in the series.

As if it matters.

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> The Cubs finished a pretty disappointing, albeit exciting week last night with an 11-inning, 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, which prevented them from sweeping the series.

The near sweep almost allowed us to forget that the Cubs dropped two of three to the Astros in the previous series to all but end any miniscule hope the Cubs had at getting back in the race.

Wednesday’s 12-inning loss was the killer, as the Cubs stranded seven guys in the ninth, 10th, and 11th innings combined.

Only the Cubs could find a way to get that many guys on base (including two straight innings with a runner on third and less than two outs) and not score a run.

Consider this: the Cubs record since the All-Star break is now 6-4.

That includes a Marmol blown save against the Phillies, the extra inning game against the Astros that the Cubs had every opportunity to win, and the extra inning loss to the Cardinals last night that.

It’s very possible the Cubs could have been 9-1 on the homestand, and now we’re looking at a seven-game defecit moving forward instead of being 10 games out.

Oh well.

The most surprising thing about the game last night was that it took the Cardinals five outs before they scored on Brian Schiltter.

I understand that Marshall and Marmol had already been used and Cashner pitched two innings the night before, but Schiltter?

Is our bullpen that bad?

It shows you how little confidence Lou Pinella has in Bob Howry that he let Schlitter (a rookie with a 15.00 ERA) not only start the 10th inning but then go out for the 11th inning as well.

He gave up four hits over those two innings including the game-winning home run to Felipe Lopez.

He somehow managed to get Albert Pujols out to lead off the 10th and then Yadier Molina hit a rocket to second that turned into an inning-ending double play after Schiltter allowed three straight hits.

That was brutal.

Here are the statistical updates:

 

Hitters

JULY 11/ JULY 18/ JULY 25

Byrd- .317/ .320/ .312

Castro- .270/ .294/ .307

Fontenot-  .292/ .290/ .287

Soto- .284/ .286/ .286

Theriot- .278/ .273/ .281

Soriano- .269/ .272/ .269

Colvin- .263/ .270/ .262

Fukudome-  .252/ .251/ .253

Lee- .233/ .238/ .251

Baker-.233/ .246/ .246

Ramirez- .207/ .213/ .227

Nady-.225/ .223/ .224

Hill- .213/ .213/ .204

 

Pitchers

JULY 11/ JULY 18/ JULY 25

Gorzelanny-  3.16/ 3.12/ 3.22

Dempster-3.61/ 3.57/ 3.71

Silva- 3.45/ 3.45/ 3.86

Lilly-  4.08/ 4.07/ 3.88

Wells- 4.61/ 4.33/ 4.07

Zambrano-  5.66/ EXILE ISLAND

Marshall- 2.03/ 1.91/ 1.74

Cashner- 2.41/ 2.61/ 2.45

Marmol- 2.16/ 2.91/ 2.66

Russell- 3.62/ 4.13/ 4.40

Stevens- 5.71/ 5.71/ 6.11

Atkins- 6.00/ 6.00/ 6.43

Howry- 5.93/ 6.97/ 7.29

Grabow- 7.36/ DL/ DL

Schlitter-Minors/ 15.00/ 10.80

 

Most Important things:

1) Breaking news! Aramis Ramirez no longer has the lowest non-pitcher batting average on the team!

2) Is it just me or does Marlon Byrd remind you of Glenallen Hill? The overly large biceps, the sunglasses, the odd “my arms are too big to bend my elbows” swing, etc.

Byrd seems to get overly excited in big at-bats. That at-bat last night in the bottom of the 10th with the bases loaded, Franklin could have thrown him anything on the first pitch and he would have swung at it.

3) I think Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro might be really good. Castro has been great in the No. 2 hole so far. I’m not sure where he will be hitting down the road in his career yet. He hasn’t really hit for any power yet, but he does seem to get his share of extra base hits. We’ll see if he starts developing some power or if he could fill that leadoff role with his speed for years to come.

Colvin has done a good job in the leadoff role, but that clearly won’t be where he stays in the years to come. He has shown a lot of power this year and he still has plenty of room to bulk up. I could see him as a middle-of-the-order-type guy in a few years and hitting from the left side makes him even more valuable.

The Cubs finally look like they might have developed some good young talent. Let’s hope they don’t pull a Jerome Walton.

4) The trade deadline is approaching and I would bet that Ted Lilly is wearing a new uniform by Wednesday. My guess is he’ll be a Detroit Tiger. Other Cubs that may be playing their last games with the club: Xavier Nady, Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukudome, and Derrek Lee.

 

5) Lou Pinella announced this week that he will be retiring at the end of this season. You can read more about his possible replacements .

6) The Cubs lead all of baseball in quality starts and yet are nine games under .500. Let that sink in for a while.

The Cubs start a three-game series against the Astros tonight and will miss both Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez in the series.

As if it matters.

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/chicago-cubs-week-in-review-july-19-july-25/feed/ 0 Cubs Week in Review (July 12-July 18) http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/cubs-week-in-review-july-12-july-18/ http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/cubs-week-in-review-july-12-july-18/#comments Mon, 19 Jul 2010 18:05:53 +0000 John Woelfel http://bleacherreport.com/articles/422183-cubs-week-in-review-july-12-july-18 The Cubs came out of the All-Star Break playing pretty good baseball.  They started the second half by taking 3 of 4 against the Phillies, capped by a pounding of Cy-Young candidate Roy Halladay.  And if it weren’t for a Marmol implosion on Saturday, the Cubs would have swept the four game set with the Phillies.  The good news is that the Cubs are now 3-1 in the 2nd half.  The bad news is the Cardinals are 4-0 after sweeping the Dodgers. 

 

As it stands now, the Cubs are tied with the Brewers at 9 ½ games behind the Cardinals and 9 games behind the Reds.  The Cubs don’t have much life left in them, and we should know more about their fate after the next 9 games.  6 of them are against the Astros.  The Cubs start a 3 game set with the Astros at Wrigley tonight, then the Cardinals come in for 3 and then the Cubs travel to Houston for 3.  If the Cubs don’t take at least six or seven of those games, they are officially done.  It would take a miracle for the Cubs to get back into the race, but going 7-2 over the next nine games would be a good start. 

 

First things first though, they need to win the opener against the Astros tonight.  The Cubs are facing a revitalized Wandy Rodriguez who is very capable of shutting them down.  The good news is the Cubs are starting to hit.  The middle of the lineup is no longer filled with automatic outs.  Amazing how much better your team can look when your #3 and #4 hitters aren’t hitting .150, isn’t it?

 

Here are the updates:

 

HITTERS:

JULY 4/ JULY 11/ JULY 18

Byrd- .304/ .317/ .320

Castro- .271/ .270/ .294

Fontenot-  .302/ .292/ .290

Soto- .277/ .284/ .286

Theriot- .275/ .278/ .273

Soriano- .277/ .269/ .272

Colvin- .271/ .263/ .270

Fukudome-  .267/ .252/ .251

Baker-.239/ .233/ .246

Lee- .227/ .233/ .238

Nady-.238/ .225/ .223

Hill- . 221/ .213/ .213

Ramirez- .178/ .207/ .213

 

PITCHERS:

JULY 4/ JULY 11/ JULY 18

Gorzelanny-  3.31/ 3.16/ 3.12

Silva- 2.96/ 3.45/ 3.45

Dempster-3.54/ 3.61/ 3.57

Lilly-  3.76/ 4.08/ 4.07

Wells- 4.67/ 4.61/ 4.33

Zambrano-  5.66/ EXILE ISLAND

Marshall- 2.03/ 2.03/ 1.91

Cashner-  2.93/ 2.41/ 2.61

Marmol-  2.08/ 2.16/ 2.91

Russell- 4.18/ 3.62/ 4.13

Stevens- 5.71/ 5.71/ 5.71

Atkins- Minors/ 6.00/ 6.00

Howry- 6.26/ 5.93/ 6.97

Grabow- 7.36/ DL/ DL

Schlitter-Minors/ 15.00

 

Most Important things:

 

The Cubs still need to decide what to do in the trade market.  They’re probably not buyers, even if they go on a hot streak before the deadline.  The only question is how big of sellers will they be.  There isn’t as much interest in Lilly as the Cubs were hoping, so it wouldn’t be shocking if they kept him for the remainder of the year and tried to re-sign him.  If they miss out on him after the season and lose him in free agency, they’ll get a draft pick in return.  That may be more valuable than who they can get for him right now.

 

Then there are still those other decisions to be made.  Fukudome has been pretty much benched for good in lieu of Tyler Colvin.  The Cubs are trying to find a taker for Kosuke, but it won’t be easy.  The Cubs could always try to move Carlos Silva to a team looking for starting help for the rest of the season.  With the resurgence of Soriano this year, the Cubs could try to dangle him as trade bait.  My guess is no one’s biting with his contract.  They may be able to move guys like Xavier Nady and possibly Ryan Theriot if they are willing to give him up.  If Theriot would be moved, that leaves a gap for next year moving forward as Mike Fontenot is probably not your long term answer there.  We tried that once.

 

If Lilly and/or Silva are traded, it will be interesting to see who takes their spot in the rotation.  Zambrano could get a shot again, or maybe the Cubs would let Andrew Cashner step in and get his feet wet once they have thrown the towel in on 2010.  Jeff Samardzija is still waiting in Iowa for another shot as well.  It’d be tough to move Cashner out of his set-up role in the bullpen now that he’s done such a great job there.

 

If you were running the Cubs, how much longer would you wait until you’d start making some trades?

 

Who would be on the list of guys you’d trade?

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> The Cubs came out of the All-Star Break playing pretty good baseball.  They started the second half by taking 3 of 4 against the Phillies, capped by a pounding of Cy-Young candidate Roy Halladay.  And if it weren’t for a Marmol implosion on Saturday, the Cubs would have swept the four game set with the Phillies.  The good news is that the Cubs are now 3-1 in the 2nd half.  The bad news is the Cardinals are 4-0 after sweeping the Dodgers. 

 

As it stands now, the Cubs are tied with the Brewers at 9 ½ games behind the Cardinals and 9 games behind the Reds.  The Cubs don’t have much life left in them, and we should know more about their fate after the next 9 games.  6 of them are against the Astros.  The Cubs start a 3 game set with the Astros at Wrigley tonight, then the Cardinals come in for 3 and then the Cubs travel to Houston for 3.  If the Cubs don’t take at least six or seven of those games, they are officially done.  It would take a miracle for the Cubs to get back into the race, but going 7-2 over the next nine games would be a good start. 

 

First things first though, they need to win the opener against the Astros tonight.  The Cubs are facing a revitalized Wandy Rodriguez who is very capable of shutting them down.  The good news is the Cubs are starting to hit.  The middle of the lineup is no longer filled with automatic outs.  Amazing how much better your team can look when your #3 and #4 hitters aren’t hitting .150, isn’t it?

 

Here are the updates:

 

HITTERS:

JULY 4/ JULY 11/ JULY 18

Byrd- .304/ .317/ .320

Castro- .271/ .270/ .294

Fontenot-  .302/ .292/ .290

Soto- .277/ .284/ .286

Theriot- .275/ .278/ .273

Soriano- .277/ .269/ .272

Colvin- .271/ .263/ .270

Fukudome-  .267/ .252/ .251

Baker-.239/ .233/ .246

Lee- .227/ .233/ .238

Nady-.238/ .225/ .223

Hill- . 221/ .213/ .213

Ramirez- .178/ .207/ .213

 

PITCHERS:

JULY 4/ JULY 11/ JULY 18

Gorzelanny-  3.31/ 3.16/ 3.12

Silva- 2.96/ 3.45/ 3.45

Dempster-3.54/ 3.61/ 3.57

Lilly-  3.76/ 4.08/ 4.07

Wells- 4.67/ 4.61/ 4.33

Zambrano-  5.66/ EXILE ISLAND

Marshall- 2.03/ 2.03/ 1.91

Cashner-  2.93/ 2.41/ 2.61

Marmol-  2.08/ 2.16/ 2.91

Russell- 4.18/ 3.62/ 4.13

Stevens- 5.71/ 5.71/ 5.71

Atkins- Minors/ 6.00/ 6.00

Howry- 6.26/ 5.93/ 6.97

Grabow- 7.36/ DL/ DL

Schlitter-Minors/ 15.00

 

Most Important things:

 

The Cubs still need to decide what to do in the trade market.  They’re probably not buyers, even if they go on a hot streak before the deadline.  The only question is how big of sellers will they be.  There isn’t as much interest in Lilly as the Cubs were hoping, so it wouldn’t be shocking if they kept him for the remainder of the year and tried to re-sign him.  If they miss out on him after the season and lose him in free agency, they’ll get a draft pick in return.  That may be more valuable than who they can get for him right now.

 

Then there are still those other decisions to be made.  Fukudome has been pretty much benched for good in lieu of Tyler Colvin.  The Cubs are trying to find a taker for Kosuke, but it won’t be easy.  The Cubs could always try to move Carlos Silva to a team looking for starting help for the rest of the season.  With the resurgence of Soriano this year, the Cubs could try to dangle him as trade bait.  My guess is no one’s biting with his contract.  They may be able to move guys like Xavier Nady and possibly Ryan Theriot if they are willing to give him up.  If Theriot would be moved, that leaves a gap for next year moving forward as Mike Fontenot is probably not your long term answer there.  We tried that once.

 

If Lilly and/or Silva are traded, it will be interesting to see who takes their spot in the rotation.  Zambrano could get a shot again, or maybe the Cubs would let Andrew Cashner step in and get his feet wet once they have thrown the towel in on 2010.  Jeff Samardzija is still waiting in Iowa for another shot as well.  It’d be tough to move Cashner out of his set-up role in the bullpen now that he’s done such a great job there.

 

If you were running the Cubs, how much longer would you wait until you’d start making some trades?

 

Who would be on the list of guys you’d trade?

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

]]> http://www.cubsmaniacs.com/chicago-cubs/cubs-week-in-review-july-12-july-18/feed/ 0