That risk factor could pose problems for the Cubs in any effort to trade Garza, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.

That's not true. Garza has overplayed his hand with this filing number, and his loss of leverage is the Cubs' gain.

What is Garza worth?

Matt Garza is arbitration-eligible in 2012, for the third of what will be four times in total prior to his reaching free agency. In 2011, he pitched to a 3.32 ERA in 198 innings. He struck out 23.5 percent of the batters he faced, and walked fewer than a third as many.

His fielding-independent pitching (FIP) was a stellar 3.05, and his translated Run Average (tRA) ranked 10th in MLB at 3.11. Only Edwin Jackson had a higher average fastball velocity in the National League.

That's obviously a vitally valuable package, and if Garza were a free agent, $12.5 million would be an insulting offer as an annual average value. Critically, though, that's not the case. Instead, Garza is two years from free agency, so his salary is determined, not by the market, but by the process that is arbitration.

Garza earned $5.95 million in 2011. That's his platform salary. His platform season was the sturdy 2011 production he posted.

Based on his platform and his performance, Garza was projected by MLB Trade Rumors' excellently accurate arbitration salary projection system to make $8.7 million in 2012.

What is the process?

Outside estimates aside, player agents and teams actually spend weeks poring over comparable cases in order to help determine a player's fair level of compensation. Much of arbitration value is determined by comparison and precedent, so the two sides choose the fair comps that best serve their agenda, then begin swapping numbers.

These are often quiet, private negotiations, informal and non-binding. The numbers exchanged are rarely the same as the ones that land on the desk of the league offices if necessary.

Often, that's as far as the process goes. Arbitration hearings are ugly affairs, because a team must stand up and explain (in front of a player they have chosen to keep, and often value highly) what is wrong with the player in question.

Hearings can permanently sour relations between team and player, so most of the time, the two sides settle long before they even make their official offers.

Failing that, though, as Garza and the Cubs have done this year, the respective parties have only one more choice: Settle around the midpoint between the numbers filed, or go to the hearing.

The hearing is an all-or-nothing proposition. An arbitrator may not choose to compromise. That's one reason the process can be so unpleasant.

In the Cubs' case, walking into the room with Garza for a hearing means $4.55 million on the line. As that $8.7-million estimated salary for Garza in 2012 demonstrates, the Cubs would easily win such a showdown.

How this situation will be resolved

Garza seems to have deliberately endeavored to force the Cubs' hand here. By filing at such an unattainable number, he and agent Nez Balelo have bluffed a bit into the Cubs' play. They believe the team wants to trade Garza, and that the alternate plan for the front office is to sign Garza to a long-term extension.

In either case, by setting the upper bound of the negotiating window so high, they have forced the team's hand: The Cubs have to act fast if that is truly their dilemma. If they want to trade Garza, the player/agent duo hopes, the Cubs will quickly give up a few extra dollars to get cost certainty, then trade Garza (plus cash if necessary) to the highest bidder.

If an extension is in the works, it would be in the Cubs' interest to settle pre-hearing, too, boosting Garza's 2012 salary to roughly $9 million and setting a high platform for a lengthy deal. A long relationship between team and player means avoiding an arbitration hearing, for reasons explained above.

Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, though, have a great chance to call Garza's bluff here. If they take him to arbitration, they will win, and his salary will be lower even than was projected.

In so doing, they will also send a message to teams around the league that they are not desperate to deal Garza, thereby opening the door for a better deal either during the season or next winter.

Garza could still get what he wants if he wants out of Chicago, but for the most part, this brinksmanship helps the Cubs as a franchise; it certainly does not hurt them.

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Though the Chicago Cubs signed six arbitration-eligible players to contracts Tuesday, for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Matt Garza, the Hamels deal may have been the biggest one of the day.

The pact between Philadelphia and its youngest co-ace does not preclude further contract extension negotiations. Hamels is a top candidate for such a deal, having been a top-10 pitcher in MLB over the past two seasons. Since learning a cutter prior to the 2010 season, he has been durable, struck out nearly four times as many batters as he has faced, and gotten the ball down more often.

As such, the Phillies certainly will not give up altogether on extension talks.

However, once a deal is signed, there is considerably less pressure bringing the two sides to the table for such a negotiation.

Hamels is not, as Cubs ace Matt Garza is, awaiting an arbitration hearing to have his salary settled. He may have considerably less interest in returning now, preferring to focus on pitching as Spring Training looms.

Assuming, then, that Hamels is headed for free agency, the Cubs have a target locked on him. At 28, Hamels is not exceptionally young, but he is not old. He is left-handed, a trait for which the new Cubs' front office has shown a dear predilection thus far this winter. He does all of the key things well that a pitcher ought to, and the Cubs need to acquire an ace of his caliber from outside the organization if they hope to compete within the next three or four years.

Without a doubt, if Hamels becomes a free agent, the Cubs are going to aggressively court him.

That makes Matt Garza a bit more expendable. Garza, who filed for arbitration with an asking price just over $10 million Tuesday, has been the subject of trade rumors all winter. Epstein, Hoyer and player development/scouting czar Jason McLeod would love to trade him for a peck of promising prospects prior to convening in Arizona next month.

Since the Cubs are loaded up with six starting pitchers as it is, Garza would hardly be missed on a rebuilding team, and they could get deeper in the minor leagues.

The 2013 season, however, posed a potential problem for that plan. Ryan Dempster will not be back that season; nor will one-year signee Paul Maholm. Therefore, if the team were to deal Garza, it would have been left without a prospective top-of-the-rotation guy in 2013. That move may have even made filling out a rotation difficult. 

If Hamels is even a viable possibility, though, the front office should not and will not hesitate to deal Garza and take a chance on signing either Hamels or Zack Greinke prior to the 2013 campaign.

By getting the impact prospect package Garza should command, the Cubs could get better in the long term, and they would still have a shot to land their much-needed ace well before that piece would be necessary.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro apparently plans to speak with Hamels more during spring camp, and could reach an extension yet. With such a talented crop already slated to hit the market next fall, though, the Cubs no doubt hope Hamels decides to test those waters himself.

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Maholm, 29, becomes the third substantial starting pitching acquisition of the new Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein regime, and could open the door to another, as his arrival may make Matt Garza more available in trade.

This is a brilliant move by the Cubs, a bargain-bin signing of a pitcher with elite ground-ball skills (he ranks among the top 10 percent of qualifying hurlers in ground-ball rate since 2008, just ahead of Roy Halladay).

He is left-handed, a priority under Epstein and Hoyer as they look to slow down left-handed batters at Wrigley Field. Lefties hit 19 percent more home runs than average at Wrigley last season, as opposed to four percent better than average from the right side.

Maholm also will pitch before an improved defensive infield in 2012, which should make him more effective. Ultimately, perhaps his greatest contribution will be to facilitate the Garza deal that seems critical to the completion of the front office's winter goals to initiate rebuilding efforts.

Here are five more deals that the Cubs' front office will try to get done before Opening Day, in order to finish what they have now begun.

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The trade sending Zambrano to South Beach will also involve Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and the Cubs paying the Marlins about $16 million of the $18 million owed to Zambrano. In return, Chicago gets Chris Volstad, 25, a right-handed pitcher of diminishing renown.

It's far from a game-changer, but this deal is a big win for the Cubs in the long-term. Epstein and Hoyer are putting on a clinic in sabermetric rebuilding. Here are five reasons Cubs fans should delight in this trade.

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Pitching is the priority for the Cubs. They have star shortstop Starlin Castro and 2012 rookie Brett Jackson as offensive anchors for the long haul, but need to address a pitching staff that walked more batters than any other in MLB last season—and the year before.

Inherently, of course, that isn't the problem. It matters little what the Cubs did in 2011 or will do in 2012, because their focus is clearly on 2014 and beyond. Unfortunately, the farther down one goes, the more imbalanced the Cubs become. Their best prospects at the lower levels are batsmen. They have at most two pitchers in their system with second-starter upside.

Therefore, it comes down not only to overall talent level, but to addressing a need that should be glaring in the Cubs franchise for some time, unless urgently addressed. The Cubs are going to get a fine price for Garza; the question is who will be paying it. Here are the six teams truly in play, ranked from six to one according to which best fit the Cubs' needs and demands.

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The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds agreed Wednesday to a trade that will send left-handed setup man extraordinaire Sean Marchall to the Reds, in return for left-handed starting pitcher Travis Wood. The Cubs will also receive two minor-league players in the deal.

Too often, front offices get bogged down in a fully illusory aversion to intradivisional trades. Usually it applies chiefly to elite players who come on the block, but even in this case, there were those who questioned the wisdom of the Cubs' dealing Marshall to a divisional rival.

"You can argue the Cubs shouldn't be trading within their division, as the Reds are going for the jugular after a disappointing 2011," wrote Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune.

That sort of mentality often stops perfectly good trades from happening. For years, the notion has been that trades within one's division can come back to roost at the worst possible moment, and out of fear of losing a trade with a top rival, many front offices avoid such deals.

This is folly for two reasons:

1. A GM should not be making a trade in which they haven't full confidence. Assuming that an executive always undertakes a thorough process of analysis and risk-reward assessment before pulling the trigger on a deal, it should not matter who is on the other end of said transaction. In fact, so much the better to trade with a divisional foe, if the organization has proper confidence in getting the better end of it.
2. Teams can have diametrically opposed interests and still have complementary needs. The Cubs are looking to rebuild in 2012 and beyond, and Marshall is under team control for just that one more season. In essence, since Theo Epstein and company do not intend to contend in 2012, Marshall has no utility to them.

   The Reds, meanwhile, mean to move Aroldis Chapman into the starting rotation, and along with the acquisition of Mat Latos this month, that made Wood fully expendable as a starter. The Reds feel 2012 could be their year, and they are not wrong, so dealing even a relatively valuable asset or two to get more immediate value at the back end of their bullpen made sense.

Ultimately, this deal made too much sense to be prevented by the illogic of divisional deals.

Wood will almost certainly hold down a spot in the back half of the Cubs' rotation for the next five years, during which time he will be under team control and have his earning potential capped by the arbitration system's stratification. Fourth and fifth starters do not make big money through that process.

The Right (Left) Fit

Wood is also left-handed. That makes him a good fit for Wrigley Field in the eyes of Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer, who have gone about rebuilding this team around left-handed players on both sides of the ball.

Last season, the park was about 17 percent friendlier to left-handed batters than to righties when it came to home runs, according to Stat Corner.

Wood called Great American Ballpark home the past two seasons. That park inflated homers by all batters much more than did Wrigley in 2011, and yet, Wood has allowed only 19 homers in 208 innings of big-league work.

He may not become elite, but he stands to gain from this move, and the Cubs' front office clearly feels he fits their environs well.

Do You Trust Me?

At this point, it's worth noting that a pattern is developing in Chicago.

Wood becomes the third substantial acquisition under the new Epstein-Hoyer regime, and in addition the aforementioned left-handedness, the trio shares another trait in common—they each had utterly miserable 2011 seasons.

Wood posted a 4.84 ERA and 4.61 xFIP, and was twice demoted to Triple-A by the frustrated Reds. He made only 22 MLB appearances, and four of those were in relief.

At least Wood hit a home run, though. Ian Stewart could not manage any of those while playing for the Colorado Rockies and was shuttled back to the minors to get himself straightened out.

Stewart will enter spring training as the team's projected regular third baseman. Meanwhile, new right fielder David DeJesus posted a career-worst .699 OPS and .309 wOBA at age 31 in Oakland.

That's not to say those were not astute acquisitions. “If you see a good player coming off an unusually bad year, that’s the time you get him,’’ said Epstein in the wake of the trade that brought Stewart, and he is right.

It's fascinating, though, to see such creative front-office men work with the knowledge that they will be given a huge benefit of any doubt during this first winter in Wrigleyville.

What's Next?

Now that Marshall has been dealt, speculation is bound to crop up about which Cubs will go where, and when. Matt Garza, Marlon Byrd, Geovany Soto and possibly Ryan Dempster or Carlos Marmol are good candidates for that honor. Alfonso Soriano is a less likely option.

When the team signed Reed Johnson to a one-year deal Wednesday, it seemed to make a Byrd or Soriano deal a bit more imminent. When David Kaplan, a sports-talk personality in Chicago, reported a pending overhaul, it may have nudged some toward an expectation that Garza will go.

He probably will. When the Reds included Yonder Alonso in their deal for Latos with the San Diego Padres, San Diego first-base prospect Anthony Rizzo became available.

The Cubs are reportedly already in the Padres' ear about Rizzo, which makes sense, since the last two GMs to acquire Rizzo were Epstein and Hoyer. A Rizzo-plus package would satisfy the Cubs nicely, and adding Wood allows them to feel a bit better about trading a starting pitcher.

Still, it will be interesting to see what (if anything) becomes of Byrd, Soto and Marmol. Each has trade value. None has much utility to the Cubs, since their contracts (or in Soto's case, his term of arbitration eligibility) each expire within the next two seasons.

It's clear, fire-sale or not, that the new regime intends to be very aggressive.

Red Storm Rising

Marshall, meanwhile, becomes the de facto relief ace in Cincinnati, for the moment.

The team may well look to re-sign Francisco Cordero or otherwise add a closer, but at the moment, Marshall is their best bullpen arm. He will come in very handy if and when Cincinnati needs to get tough left-handed batters out in a playoff matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves.

It's hard to say whether the Reds are now NL Central favorites or not. If Carlos Beltran lands with the St. Louis Cardinals this winter, the defending World Series champions would look like a fair bet to return to the playoffs in 2012.

If not, though, or if Cincinnati can supplement this trade with another pickup to improve their left-field situation, then GM Walt Jocketty will not have given away Wood or his farm depth in vain. Either way, for both teams, this deal was worth bending the unwritten rules.

Matt Trueblood is a Loyola University Chicago graduate with a degree in journalism, and a Bleacher Report Featured Columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

Read more Chicago Cubs news on BleacherReport.com

The Cubs gave up Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu in the deal, which also netted them minor-league hurler Casey Weathers. Giving up so little to get Stewart, despite the ugly numbers and problematic profile the erstwhile Rockies batter presents, has to count as a win.

Stewart looked terrible in 2011. In 136 plate appearances, he batted .156/.243/.221, without a home run. That led the Rockies to sequester him in the minor leagues for much of the season, where he batted .275/.359/.591 in 195 plate appearances and launched 14 homers.

There's an obvious mental block here. The sky-high failure rate with which Stewart has dealt in his career—he's struck out in some 27.9 percent of his big-league plate appearances—seemed to wear upon Stewart. Injuries also played a role, and anecdotally, it seemed Stewart spent too much time trying to lift the ball in 2011, and too little time trying to square it up.

That's the bad news. The good news is that Stewart does have real power. In his first three MLB seasons, he showed 25-homer pop. He also has patience, enough to have walked in over 10 percent of his career plate appearances. Part of that is illusory: Stewart simply makes so little contact that he gets deep into counts and draws walks sometimes.

Selectively Aggressive

A bit more patience and a bit more contact could make Stewart a productive batter in a hurry. He has swung at 30.9 and 32.6 percent of pitches outside the strike zone the past two seasons, which has led pitchers to throw progressively fewer pitches to him inside the strike zone—from 49.5 percent to 48.2 percent, to 44.4 percent, to 42.9 percent over the past four years.

Discipline can force pitchers to come back over the plate, where Stewart can do damage. He's not showing it right now, but the discipline is there. Stewart has the classic Epstein-model plate approach: He is selectively aggressive. It was about here that another left-handed slugger stood in 2006, struggling to find big-league work because of a bad blend of middling patience and terrible contact skills. A year later, that player became Carlos Pena.

Big Brother?

Carlos Pena signed a one-year deal with the Cubs in 2011, and he had a great season. On top of hitting well (.225/.357/.462, 28 homers) and providing his usual defensive value, he proved to be an 80 makeup guy. He was the perfect presence in the Cubs' clubhouse. That's who he is. 

The Cubs need to bring back Pena on a two-year deal worth something like $20-25 million. On top of hitting well and providing his usual defensive value—again—Pena can come back on board and take on an important project. Plate discipline changed Pena's life, made him a multimillionaire and it all really started for him at age 29. He can be Ian Stewart's guide on the road to redemption, and really well-paying long-term employment.

Colorado Colvin

Trading Tyler Colvin to the Rockies in this deal was something akin to Tom Sawyer selling off the right to paint Aunt Polly's fence. Whether you believe Colvin can make the necessary swing adjustments and regain his form or not, it has been clear for a while that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer did not and do not. If they had believed in Colvin, even a little, they would not have signed David DeJesus to be the regular right fielder.

By trading Colvin, the team loosened the outfield logjam that served only to restrain top prospect Brett Jackson whenever he becomes big-league ready. Colvin is a talented athlete, but he has a poor approach and few secondary skills. The swing is a mess, and since the Cubs were so clearly unwilling to commit to Colvin as reclamation project, trading him was both merciful and intelligent.

LeMahieu, Not DeWitt

The other half of the Rockies' return for Stewart is D.J. LeMahieu. A man without a defensive home, LeMahieu has drifted around the infield the past few years in search of a position he can play competently. It isn't there. Lacking power and patience, LeMahieu relies on squaring balls up and cracking a whole lot of singles to have value. He doesn't profile well for that path.

When this deal was first brewing, Blake DeWitt was the apparent lynchpin. It seems Epstein and Hoyer didn't want to part with him. DeWitt, unlike LeMahieu, can play the outfield. He bats left-handed, is the same age as Stewart and provides some defensive value at a few spots on the diamond.

An obvious roster option for the Cubs might have been to carry Stewart, Ryan Flaherty and LeMahieu into next season. Instead, the front office chose to include Colvin in this deal, let Flaherty be swept away at the Rule V draft and keep DeWitt and Jeff Baker alongside Stewart. All that is, of course, if there aren't more moves in the immediate future.

How It Will Look

Assuming the Cubs do bring back Pena or make a similar addition at first base, Stewart projects as the sixth hitter in the lineup on Opening Day. There's no reason Jeff Baker can't get another 200 plate appearances in 2012 by platooning with Stewart and facing left-handed pitching. DeWitt will start very few games, but he'll appear in many as a defensive sub for Stewart in later innings.

Tony Campana and Brett Jackson will spend more days on the Cubs' roster than they might have prior to this deal. Overall, Stewart should bat about 450 times for Chicago in 2012, or the same number one might have expected from Colvin and LeMahieu combined. For a team preaching incremental improvement, this deal embodies the rebuilding vision in Wrigleyville.

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Manager Dale Sveum, however, managed to drop a juicy tidbit or two during his latest confab with the media.

Sveum hinted at some elements of his Opening Day lineup, making special note of the cases of Starlin Castro and David DeJesus, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Those two men will be key cogs in the lineup in 2012, and given the state of the Cubs' pitching staff, there will be plenty of pressure on the offense.

Here is a projection, based on some reasonable assumptions, of the Opening Day lineup in 2012.

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Call this traction. Epstein's resignation from the Red Sox and assumption of power at Wrigley Field is official, according to a joint press release from the teams Friday.

Compensation does not appear to be finalized, so we won't know how good (or bad) a deal this is for Chicago until those details come to light over the next five days.

Still, with Epstein in the fold, Chicago can proceed with its plan to bring former Epstein assistant and current San Diego Padres GM Jed Hoyer in to fill the same role.

Timing is everything. Getting this front-office shake-up out of the way before the end of the World Series was a critical step. It seems Epstein, Hoyer and Jason McLeod (former Epstein assistant and current Hoyer right-hand man) will have time to get their house in order before the offseason begins in earnest next week.

Meetings must be held; decisions must be made. Epstein, Hoyer and McLeod will need to put their vision for the club's future on the table, but not before hearing from critical incumbent parts Oneri Fleita, Tim Wilken and Ari Kaplan about the current states of the Cubs' minor-league system, organizational hierarchy and big-league roster.

The Cubs figure to be very busy this winter, and they need to act quickly to make sure they have a cohesive operation come mid-November. Here are 10 things that must get done in the next 10 days under the new Cubs regime.

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During that time, despite very limited resources, Hoyer has marked himself as one of theleague's shrewdest and savviest executives. If Andrew Friedman had not had the tremendous farm system he did when he took over the Tampa Bay Rays, he would have done everything just the way Hoyer has done it in San Diego.

Hoyer and Epstein will combine on most baseball decisions, and should make good ones. Here are 10 gold stars on Hoyer's resume—great moves he made during his brief Padres tenure.

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