I thought it might be interesting to break down the Cubs current 2012 salary commitments and what that means for how much money they'll have to spend to try and bring Pujols, Prince Fielder or any of the other big free agents out there.

A few caveats:

No. 1 I'm assuming the 2012 payroll will stay pretty close to 2011 - around $130 million

No. 2 I'm assuming the Cubs re-up Aramis at around the same annual price - $15 mil (honestly, there are no other good free agent 3B out there after this upcoming season......the Cubs would be dumb to let him walk....)

No. 3 I'm not sure what they plan on doing with Kerry Wood after the season

No. 4 I'm using information from:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html

Although I don't think these are official MLB payroll numbers, they are probably really close to the actual payroll numbers.

After 2011, the Cubs have these salaries coming off the books: 

                -$14.5 mil  (Fukudome)

                -$5              (Silva – he actually makes $12 mil this year, but Seattle is paying $5 of that, so $7 mil compared to a $2 mil buyout they'll pay him in 2012…)

                -$10           (Pena)

                -$4.8          (Grabow)

                -

$3.5          (Samardzija)

                -$37.8        TOTAL

But they’re also going to have raises to players, through both contracts and arbitration:

                +$3         (Garza)

                +$1         (Byrd)

                +$4         (Marmol)

                +$3         (Soto)

+$1.5     (Marshall)          

                +$12.5   TOTAL

Net savings of $25.3 compared to this year's payroll. 

They will still have to give some other players slight raises, but I don't think that'll be more than $5 million total compared to what I've outlined so far.

So giving Pujols a $30 mil/per year contract is definitely doable.

They could give him a signing bonus and then pay him $23 million or $24 million for salary in 2012.

I’d prefer they actually front-load the long-term contract a bit so they don’t end up paying him $40 million a year when he’s in his late-30s.

Their lineup in 2012 would be something like:

No.1  DeWitt / Baker

No.2 Castro

No.3 Pujols

No.4 Ramirez

No.5 Colvin

No.6 Soriano

No.7 Byrd

No.8 Soto

Their rotation in 2012 would be something like:

Zambrano, Dempster, Garza, Wells, Cashner

And the front end of their bullpen in 2012 would be something like:

Scott Maine, Marshall, Marmol

After 2012, they also have the salaries of Byrd, Zambrano, and Dempster coming off the books, a combined $40 million.

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The position players all look set and will probably break down to 13 people:

Starting lineup:   Castro, Colvin, Byrd, Ramirez, Pena, Soriano, Soto, Dewitt

Bench: Fukudome, Baker, Barney, Hill

As always, no great leadoff options and Hill’s offense is nonexistent.  Having said that, Fukudome makes  a more than capable backup in case Soriano continues his 3 year decline or Colvin suffers from the sophomore slump.  I like Baker in a platoon at 2B with Dewitt but not crazy about Pena playing everyday as he’s always struggled against lefthanders….an average lineup at best, unless Ramirez rounds back into a 110-RBI threat in his contract year.

Possibilities: Not much affordable that’s still out there since the Cubs already missed the boat on a couple of possibilities.  SF only paid $1 mil for Pat Burrell to come back and I would’ve offered $2.5 to make him the right-handed part of a RF-platoon.  They could still go out and get Reed Johnson back for $1.2 mil to spell Tyler Colvin against left-handed pitchers and provide late-inning defense for Soriano.  In the infield, what about Cristian Guzman as a superutility player and right-handed platoon option?  He does have a .329 avg and .816 OPS against left-handed pitching the last 3 years, so you could play him at 2B and Jeff Baker at 1B for 6 innings until the other team’s bullpen comes in.….if Bill Hall can get $3 mil, I might offer this to Guzman only if the club can’t afford to get anybody else on the roster.  Otherwise, might offer Mike Lowell $1 mil to be the platoon 1B option and bat off the bench.

Current Grade:  C

Starting rotation: Zambrano, Dempster, Silva, Wells, Gorzelanny

Say what you will, but Zambrano managed to turn around his season once he was back in the rotation for good, and Dempster has continued to surprise me by throwing  great innings for a 3^rd consecutive year. Wells and Gorzelanny are average starters for the back end and Silva’s always an injury risk.

Possibilities: I see Casey Coleman getting lots of average fill-in innings once again. Although I’d prefer having a low-base guy like Brandon Webb or Chris Young waiting in the wings, I see them signing for more with other clubs….if you can’t get either of them, Kevin Millwood’s stock has never been lower so you could probably get him for just $2 mil plus incentives….this might all change if Andrew Cashner looks good as a starter during spring training and unfortunately I don’t see them trading Silva now while the free agent market looks as bad as it does for teams looking for pitchers….

Current Grade: C+

Bullpen: Marmol, Marshall, Wood, Grabow, Cashner, Samardzija, Maine

The late innings look good and I expect Grabow to bounce back as a decent middle reliever (although a really expensive one at $4.8 mil…..)  This is Samardzija’s last year and the club is paying him $3.5 mil so I expect him to get his final shot at a bullpen spot in spring training.  Scott Maine impressed down the stretch last year so lets hope he doesn’t turn into another pumpkin like Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg did this year after their 2009 stretch runs……

Possibilities:  This is the one area where I think the Cubs will probably make their remaining moves. Middle-relief is thin again and they could probably use a left-handed specialist.  I might offer Joe Beimel $2.25 mil annually to fill that role, and if he turns the club down offer $1.5 to Lance Cormier. Strangely, Cormier is a right-hander who has been better against left-handers, with a 3-year OPS-against-lefthanders of .686.  Brian Fuentes, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch will probably all cost $4 mil or more, so I would take a flier on Takashi Saito.  Strangely, this guy continues to fly under the radar but there have been few relievers in the last five years that have been as good as this guy if you really crunch the numbers. He’s terrific against left-handers and even better against right-handers.  Many teams will try to lowball him with incentive-laden deals due to his advanced age and injury concerns, but I would offer a deal guaranteed to blow away the competition: 1-year, $3.5 mil guaranteed, with vesting option for 2012 based on innings pitched.

Current Grade:  C+

Final free agent possibilities: 

Player                                   Role                                                                                       Contract

Reed Johnson                   4^th OF against LH pitchers                                              1 year, $1.2 mil

Mike Lowell                        1B against LH pitchers and RH bat bench                1 year, $1 mil

Kevin Millwood                 5^th starting pitcher                                                           1 year, $2 mil guaranteed

Joe Beimel                          LOOGY relief specialist                                                   2 years, $2 mil in 2011

Takashi Saito                      right-handed relief, 7^th inning                                     1 year, $2.5 mil with $1 buyout

Total cost in 2011:  $8.7 mil

Ultimately, the everyday lineup and starting rotation still aren’t great but the bullpen and bench are a little better.  That might be all we can hope for this offseason before some of the big contracts (Ramirez, Fukudome, Silva, Grabow, Samardzija) come off the books after 2011…

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CL -- Carlos Marmol

SU -- Angel Guzman, John Grabow

LR  -- Sean Marshall

MR -- Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Jeff Samardzija or Jon Gaub or Jeff Stevens

While I feel comfortable about the front 4 (even though Hendry waaaay overpaid Grabow and doesn't seem to pay any attention to a pitcher's WHIP), I'm not sold on the back end.....Berg and Caridad closed out  with a bang last year, but neither was on the team's radar as a major prospect and I don't see both being solid contributors going forward (maybe one, but not both....)

Samardzija is too inconsistent, Stevens dominated triple-A but couldn't translate it to big-league success, and Jon Gaub -- although absolutely filthy at double- and triple-A -- hasn't yet been up with the big leage club.

It's clear that at least 1 more veteran arm would be nice.  [Preface: I rely heavily on OPS-against as a quality indicator of future success.....]

Here are my free-agent relievers, ranked by preference, that could be obtained relatively cheaply:

1) Kiko Calero    

Upsides: Except for 2007, has an OPS under .640 the last 5 years. Only 4 HRs given up the last 3 years combined.

Downsides: Injured in parts of 2007-08.

Would offer:  2-year, $6-mil deal, and go as high as 3 years, $9 mil.

2) Doug Brocail

Upsides: Had an OPS under .680 in 2006-08. In 2009, OPS against RH of .662. 

Downsides: Subpar 2009 due to injury.

Would offer:  1-year, $2.5-mil deal, and go as high as 2 years, $4.5-mil.

3) Russ Springer

Upsides: Great in 2007-08. Except for 2009, has an OPS under .700 the last 5 years. .538 OPS against RH the last 3 years.

Downsides: Poor numbers in 2009, sometimes HR-prone...

Would offer: 1-year, $2.5-mil deal, and go as high as 2 years, $5-mil w/ $3.5 option for 2012.

4) Chad Bradford

Upsides: Except for 2007, has an OPS under .680 the last 5 years. Only 4 HRs given up the last 3 years combined. Pretty consistent submariner when healthy.

Downsides: Injured in parts of 2007-08.

Would offer:  2-year, $5-mil deal, w/ $3 club option for 2012.

5) Brian Shouse

Upsides: Great in 2007-08. .531 OPS against LH the last 3 years. Terrific lefty specialist.

Downsides: Awful in 2009.

Would offer:  1-year, $750,000 deal, and go as high as 1 year, $1.5 mil w/ 2011 option.

6) Brendan Donnelly

Upsides: Except for 2008, has an OPS under .700 every year of his career. Might be healthy for the first time in a long time, and could come cheap.

Downsides: Injury-prone, gopher-prone.

Would offer:  2-year, $3-mil, or as high as 2 years, $4 mil.

7) David Weathers

Upsides: He's a workhorse, and very versatile, having closed games for the Reds a couple of years.

Downsides: OPS under .700 in just 2 of the last 5 years.  Really more suited to middle-relief role than anything else....

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.   That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

8) Fernando Rodney

Upsides: Experience closing, was 37 of 38 saves last year.

Downsides: ERA under 3.50 only once and gives up gophers. Really not a great pitcher, has a reputation as a fireballer that doesn't match the numbers.

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.  That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

9) Guillermo Mota

Upsides: Great in 2009.

Downsides: In 2006-08, he was both not effective AND expensive.

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.  That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

10) Alan Embree

Upsides: Lefty. Experienced.

Downsides: His numbers have gotten worse each of the last 3 years. I'm only putting him on this list to have a nice round top-10......

Would offer:  Minor-league deal.

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"To demonstrate, look at the league average in BABIP for the past three years, compared to Fontenot's BABIP. I'll drop his OPS in, too.

2007: League - .306, Mike - .330, Mike's OPS - .738
2008: League - .303, Mike - .355 (!), Mike's OPS - .909
2009: League - .302, Mike - .281 (...), Mike's OPS - .677

One other thing I'd look at: Font's ratio of at-bats against lefties to those against righties over the past three years. From '07 to '09: 1-to-3, 1-to-10, 1-to-6."

Basically, in 2008 Fontenot never played against a left-hander and his numbers thrived.   Last three years, these are his stats against RH pitchers:

ABS:   730
BA:     .273
OBP:   .348
SLG:    .436
OPS:    .784

Let's compare this to three guys out there that have been mentioned as 2B possibilities if the Cubs manage to unload Bradley. These are their numbers overall compared to Fontenot's numbers just against RH pitchers:

         Luis Castillo        Orlando Hudson      Felipe Lopez     Fontenot (vs. RH)
BA:    .289                    .293                       .310                 .273
OBP   .369                    .366                       .383                 .348
SLG:   .342                    .435                       .427                 .436
OPS:   .711                    .801                       .810                 .784

They all get on base better, can switch-hit and hit LH and RH equally well, but if Fontenot only plays against RH (about 400 ABs) he's an inexpensive alternative to these other guys  (especially since Hendry doesn't have a lot of wiggle room with the $$$ right now).

Combined with Jeff Baker, that would be a productive platoon.  Here are Baker's numbers only against LH in the last three years compared to the other guys:

         Luis Castillo        Orlando Hudson      Felipe Lopez     Baker (vs. LH)
BA:    .289                    .293                       .310              .275
OBP   .369                    .366                       .383               .332
SLG:   .342                    .435                       .427              .509
OPS:   .711                    .801                       .810              .841

Although Baker doesn't get on base, he absolutely would kill lefties if given about 200 ABs.  Overall, a Fontenot/Baker platoon in 2010 would average around:
       
BA:      .274
OBP:    .342
SLG:     .465
OPS:     .807

Though any of the Castillo/Hudson/Lopez trio would be a fine addition, considering the money isn't there to go get them, a Fontenot/Baker platoon wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  And if Fontenot's 2009 wasn't a fluke and is indicative he'll never be good again, you can always go get a 2B in a trade in the middle of the season.

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Yes, getting rid of Heilman was a good move and saved $2 million, but once again Hendry overpaid for a middle-of-the-road reliever: $3.75 million a year for John Grabow is another bad bullpen move. This is like Danys Baez, or Ron Mahay, or Jeremy Affeldt, but luckily for only two years.

I anticipate that Harden won't be back and Gorzelanny probably beats out Sean Marshall for the No. 5 spot.  (Don't even joke that maybe Jeff Samardzija might make it, that guy sucks. We'll be lucky to get bullpen innings out of him in 2011.) 

Randy Wells probably takes a step back, but is still serviceable. I don't see major changes to the rotation and I think because Soto's BABIP was so low this year, in 2010 he ends up somewhere in the middle between his 2008 and 2009 numbers.   (.250 Avg, .340 OBP,  .770 OPS.)

Let's look at the 4 key areas that may be addressed by Hendry this winter:

1)  RF

2)  CF

3)  2B

4)  Bullpen

1)  RF—Everyone in baseball knows Hendry wants to get rid of Bradley. The question becomes, how low do people think Jim is willing to go?  I say the Cubs go to the Rays straight-up for Pat Burrell and Cubs chip in $6 million for Bradley's 2011 salary. That way for 2010 they're not taking on any extra salary but they've gotten rid of the clubhouse cancer.

Burrell's not yet old enough to be over the hill and this is his last contract year, so I'd be willing to roll the dice.

Sure, the outfield defense would be awful if Soriano is still getting ABs, but we could slide Fukudome over to RF after six innings. OR if Soriano is done, then Burrell could start in LF, Fuld in CF, and Fukudome in RF. That would mitigate Burrell's bad defense. OR if Burrell sucks, just let him play RF for Fukudome only when there's a left-handed starter up. Even as bad as he was last year against lefthanders, in 2007 he had a .950 OPS and in 2008 he had a .951 OPS.

Worst case scenario is you get nothing productive out of Burrell this year because his career is finished (like the Phillies with Geoff Jenkins) and you have to pay a player in 2011 that's not even with your club any more. Is that too high a price to get rid of a one-man distraction circus?  I don't think so.

Net salary effect:  $0 Mil  in 2010.   -$6 Mil in 2011.

2)  CF—The Grabow signing probably makes this hard to do, but I would have said let Gregg, Grabow, AND Heilman go, use that money to trade for Curtis Granderson by selling high on Sterlin Castro and Jay Jackson.  Re-sign Reed Johnson for $1 million to platoon in CF, because he's not gonna get more than that on the open-market and Granderson can't hit left-handed pitching. 

That would have cost about $9 mil on CF, which isn't that bad.  But Grabow's resigning makes that probably too costly.

Other options? 

David Dejesus from Kansas City makes perfect sense. LH hitter that's good against RH pitchers and can play CF (even though he's better in LF). Still won't be expensive in 2010 and would likely take lesser prospects to acquire than Granderson. A Dejesus/R. Johnson pairing in CF would actually be pretty decent.....

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
1299 203 383 64 20 27 153 131 29 174 21 17 .295 .369 .437 .806

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
68 11 22 7 1 1 11 7 2 13 2 1 .324 .403 .500 .903

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
331 101 100 15 2 7 81 22 11 64 11 9 .302 .359 .423 .782

Proof that a combination of Dejesus/Johnson would look great in CF/No. 1 spot. Johnson has also looked good as a middle-of-the-lineup hitter against LH pitchers.

AVG. OBP SLG OPS
.233 .308 .426 .734

I wouldn't pay $10 million for that.

Net salary effect:  -$5 Mil  in 2009 for Dejus/Johnson. -$9 Mil in 2009 for Granderson/Johnson.

3)  2B—don't do anything at 2B.

I know, Fontenot had an awful year and Baker had a great year, but I think they'll both level out.  Fontenot's BABIP last year was really low, and that always tends to improve for players the following year.  I bet that Fontenot will hit RH pitchers in 2010 around a .750-.800 OPS while playing good D. Perfectly acceptable. 

Jeff Baker played insanely in 2009, there's no way he can keep up that pace and historically he hits LH much better than RH.  I say Fontenot will do better, Baker will do worse, and even Aaron Miles can't be as bad as he was in 2009. 

All told, the club will get much better production from 2B by a platoon situation.  Don't sacrifice defense at second base.

However, if they don't get Granderson or Dejesus and/or are still stuck with Bradley, I MIGHT make a play for Luis Castillo, since the Mets seem eager to get rid of him. If you get Castillo, go RF Fukudome/Johnson, 2B Castillo as 1-2 in the lineup. 

Castillo, for all his problems (getting older, no power, less range, etc.) can still work a count and get on pace at a healthy clip.   If you get him, give CF to Sam Fuld. Even if he never hits again as well as he did in 2009, he's clearly the best defensive CF and works a count well.

A .250 avg, .333 OBP and great defense out of CF is fine for the No. 8 spot in a lineup when Fukudome and Castillo are setting the table so well.

Net salary effect:  $0 Mil  in 2009 if you do nothing.   -$6 Mil in 2009 if you get Castillo.

4)  Bullpen—Once again, Grabow signing was a bad idea.  But, he is a veteran and maybe he'll pull a rabbit out of his hat again.  Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad surprised the hell out of me at the end of the year, combining for four ER allowed in 31-and-a-third innings and a 0.92 WHIP.  So they'll get a look, plus Marmol, Guzman, and Sean Marshall.

Jon Gaub had sick numbers last year. In 60 combined innings, he struck out 80 and walked 33. Even when he went up to triple-A his stuff was filthy. Hendry also picked up Scott Maine in the Heilman trade, who whiffed 61 batters and walked just 22 in 62 innings in the minors. Marshall looked good in a relief role.

I think Hendry MAY wait in the bushes and try and pounce on another veteran late in the game (Arthur Rhodes? Brian Shouse? Brendan Donnelly? Takshi Saito? David Weathers?), but for right now the pen is six deep and will look like:

CL - Marmol   

SU - Grabow, Guzman 

LR - Marshall 

MR - Berg/Caridad,  Gaub/Maine

All told, there are several possibilities out there that won't break the bank.  A lot is contingent on finding someone willing to take a flyer on Bradley, and preferably we can defer paying part his salary until 2011.

What do you guys think?

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